‘It matters if the cat catches mice’

IN 1978, China stood at a precipice that feels uncomfortably familiar to any observer of Zimbabwe’s current economic trajectory.

Decades of Maoist ideological purity had left the Asian giant impoverished, starving and isolated. The country was drowning in slogans, yet its people were unable to swim.

The solution to this catastrophe did not come from doubling down on the failed doctrines of the past, or from a stubborn insistence on “sovereignty” at the expense of survival. It came from a moment of profound political courage and a simple, yet revolutionary, maxim.

Deng Xiaoping, the architect of China’s turnaround, famously declared: “It doesn’t matter if a cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.”

This maxim was the ultimate permission slip for pragmatism. It signalled that results mattered more than rhetoric; if a capitalist mechanism (the white cat) fed the people better than a communist one (the black cat), the state would use it.

Today, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) stands in direct opposition to this wisdom. The recent declaration that there is “no going back on US dollar phase-out” is being framed by the state as a bold assertion of monetary sovereignty.

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In reality, it is a textbook example of the very “pilot error” that has grounded the Zimbabwean economy for two decades: the elevation of ideological dogma over economic reality.

The US$300m mouse

The cost of this dogma is no longer theoretical; it has a verifiable price tag. The RBZ’s directive to force the usage of the “black cat” (the local currency, ZiG) — even though it has repeatedly failed to catch the mouse of economic stability — is now actively repelling the capital required for our nation’s survival.

According to the recently released State of the Mining Industry Survey by the Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe, the RBZ’s rigid adherence to de-dollarisation is jeopardising more than US$300 million in planned investments.

This capital, critical for the high-potential lithium and platinum sectors, is stalling not because of a lack of resources, but because of a lack of trust.

The survey reveals a sector sliding deeper into crisis as confidence erodes. A staggering 80% of mining executives expect access to foreign currency to deteriorate by 2026, with the outlook index for forex availability plunging to -31, its lowest level on record.

While the RBZ demands that the population and investors embrace the local currency, the market is voting with its feet. Financiers are reportedly reluctant to provide long-term financing beyond 2030, citing the uncertainty surrounding the government’s de-dollarisation roadmap.

In a damning indictment of our institutional credibility, the survey notes that financiers are now “demanding that gold producers lodge physical gold as collateral” to mitigate risk.

When global investors prefer physical barter to trusting a central bank’s policy promise, the currency is not just failing; it has already failed.

The RBZ’s directive is a refusal to acknowledge that the “white cat” (the US dollar), despite its foreign origins, is currently the only instrument keeping the economy fed.  By threatening the mining sector — the backbone of our foreign exchange earnings — in the name of a local currency that the market does not trust, the government is prioritising the symbol of sovereignty over the substance of sovereignty.

The pursuit of cosmic justice

As I argue in my book, Black Poverty: A Story of Leadership and Policy Failures, this refusal to accept reality is driven by a commitment to “cosmic justice”.

This is the belief that political will can bend economic laws to achieve a morally or nationally desirable outcome — in this case, the restoration of a sovereign currency without first doing the hard work of restoring sovereign credibility.

The government views the dominance of the US dollar as a humiliation, a reminder of the colonial legacy or foreign interference. Therefore, they believe they can simply legislate its removal.

This was evident when the RBZ deputy governor Innocent Matshe recently insisted that the de-dollarisation path is “irreversible”, regardless of market sentiment. But economics does not care about humiliation; it cares about trust.

By attempting to force the market into the ZiG before establishing the institutional foundations to support it, the RBZ is trying to achieve a political goal by breaking economic laws.

They are effectively trying to mandate confidence. However, as economist Gift Mugano noted in reaction to the survey, trust in a currency cannot be legislated.

The ZiG remains virtually absent in the informal sector, which accounts for at least 80% of economic activity, precisely because that sector operates on trust and utility, not government decree.

The pragmatic pivot

For Zimbabwe to escape this cycle, it needs a “pragmatic pivot”. We must stop asking “is this currency ours?” and start asking “does this currency work?”.

A currency works when it stores value, facilitates trade, and allows for long-term planning. The US dollar currently performs these functions. The ZiG, plagued by volatility and a lack of public trust, does not.

Real pragmatism requires looking at successful examples of de-dollarisation rather than inventing our own timeline based on political desires.

WestProp Holdings CEO Ken Sharpe recently drew a parallel with Israel, a country that successfully de-dollarised, but took 20 years to do so.

“If they have all the money in the world and it took them 20 years, how can we do it sooner?” Sharpe asked. “Let us be realistic about the goals.”

The RBZ’s 2030 deadline is not realistic; it is arbitrary. As the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries chief economist Cornelius Dube argued, if the approach is truly market-led, “then that means 2030 should be informed by the market”, not fixed by a decree that chokes investment today.

A pragmatic leadership, operating under a “covenant of competence”, would accept this reality. They would use the stability provided by the multi-currency system to buy time for deep institutional repairs.

Instead, we see a doubling down on the “political means” — the use of state coercion to dictate value. This approach has a 100% failure rate in our history, from the bearer cheque to the bond note.

The missing ingredient

The irony is that Deng Xiaoping did not abandon the Communist Party to save China; he saved the party by abandoning its failed economics.

He understood that legitimacy comes from competence, not control. If the RBZ truly wants a sovereign currency, it must earn it.

It must do so not by banning competitors, but by establishing meritocracy over loyalty within its own walls. The management of our national wealth cannot be a reward for political fealty; it must be the domain of technocrats judged solely on inflation targets and exchange rate stability.

Furthermore, it requires the absolute protection of property rights. You cannot have a strong currency in a country where assets can be seized, or where policies are reversed overnight.

The demand by financiers for physical gold as collateral is the market screaming that it does not respect our Rule of Law. They are treating the government as a counterparty risk, not a partner.

The market treats the currency with the same suspicion it treats the government’s respect for the rule of law.

• Nyoni is a writer, entrepreneur and policy analyst. His book Black Poverty: A Story of Leadership and Policy Failures, released on November 26, contrasts the failure of African ideological rigidity with the success of Asian developmental pragmatism.