ZIMBABWE’S ban on raw lithium and mineral concentrate exports could begin tightening global supplies within weeks, as the final shipments made before the restriction reach Chinese ports, analysts have said.
Speaking at a breakfast meeting in Harare on Tuesday organised by the Zimbabwe Environmental Law Organisation (ZELO), Project Blue senior analyst Jordan Roberts said the policy’s impact would likely be felt from May.
“I think that the bottom line of the export ban is that it's strategically logical, but I think execution will be everything and the quicker that execution can happen, the better for the stability of the overall lithium market,” Roberts said.
“So when the export ban was brought forward a couple of months ago, we immediately saw an increase in global lithium prices. And although the time for the lithium concentrators to be exported and reach China is roughly two months, we are really going to see the impact of the export ban from May onwards, where the last remaining shipments prior to the ban will reach their destination in the ports of China.”
Zimbabwe imposed the ban earlier this year as part of efforts to promote local value addition in the country’s fast-growing lithium sector, one of the world’s key sources of battery minerals used in electric vehicles and energy storage systems.
Roberts said rising global demand for batteries had already pushed lithium prices higher, although this had not translated into higher export earnings for Zimbabwe.
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“And at the same time, we have seen massive increases in demand from energy storage systems as governments, and especially regions such as China, the US, and Europe, look to increase their percentage of renewable energy and batteries form an important component of that,” he said.
“But what we haven't seen so much with these rising global prices is the translation of that into rising export prices. So although the volume of exports from Zimbabwe to global partners was up 11% year-on-year, revenue was largely flat.”
“In particular, the revenue generated from royalties, which, although exports were over half a billion US dollars last year, the government only captured roughly 7% of that total export value in royalties.”
Huang Minghai, Economic and Commercial Counsellor at the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Zimbabwe, said exporting lithium concentrate was common across major producing regions.
“It is also important to note that lithium concentrate is an internationally standardised commodity, and it is produced and exported in the same form in major lithium-producing regions such as Australia, South America, and Southern Africa,” Huang said.
He said companies were cooperating with authorities regarding investigations into mineral exports.
“In addition, the companies have invited the Ministry of Mines and Mining Development to conduct comprehensive elemental analysis and research on lithium concentrates. All five companies are fully prepared to cooperate with government authorities regarding supervision, sampling, and investigations,” Huang said.
ZELO programmes manager Obert Bore said Zimbabwe could be losing significant value by exporting lithium concentrates instead of refined products.
“The figures from Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe show that to export just at least a tonne of concentrate the price is around US$150 to US$300 dollars and when you process the lithium to the level of carbonate or hydroxide the value jumps to around US$18 000 per tonne,” Bore said.
Bore added that research had also identified valuable associated minerals in Zimbabwe’s lithium deposits, including caesium, rubidium and beryllium, which are not always accounted for in export declarations.
Zimbabwe has become one of Africa’s largest lithium producers following major investments by Chinese mining companies in recent years, with government now pushing miners to process the mineral locally to capture more value from the global battery supply chain.