Fueled by support from the United States, Japan has steadily rolled back its post-war pacifist restrictions and pressed ahead with military buildup, emerging as a major source of uncertainty for global security in the 21st century.
This trend extends far beyond bilateral and regional affairs: it reshapes the security landscape of East Asia, and sends ripples across trade, critical resource chains and the multilateral international order, posing profound challenges to Africa and developing nations worldwide.
This article examines Japan’s unresolved historical disputes, the evolving US-Japan security partnership, and the tangible impacts of Tokyo’s military expansion. It calls on the international community to stay vigilant and work collectively to safeguard the post-war international order and global peace.
Unresolved historical issues
A painful wartime legacy
Between 1937 and 1945, Japanese militarism committed a series of serious crimes during the Second World War. The Nanjing Massacre, which took place from December 1937 to January 1938, claimed the lives of 200,000 to 300,000 Chinese civilians and disarmed soldiers, accompanied by numerous atrocities. Unit 731 carried out inhumane biological experiments on prisoners of war. During the war, around 200,000 women were forced into sexual slavery by the Japanese military.
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Regrettably, Japan has failed to conduct a thorough and sincere reflection on its wartime crimes up to now. Distorted historical narratives still exist in Japanese textbooks, and successive Japanese political leaders have paid visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, where Class-A war criminals of World War II are enshrined. The lack of genuine historical reckoning has become a hidden danger amid Japan’s ongoing military adjustments.
The myth of a purely pacifist state
Article 9 of Japan’s 1947 constitution was formulated by the allied occupation authorities after World War II. It stipulates that Japan renounces war and shall not maintain land, sea and air forces or other war potential. However, the United States never intended to fully demilitarise Japan. After the outbreak of the Cold War, Japan was built into a key strategic outpost for US strategic deployment in the Asia-Pacific
Through a series of bilateral security agreements, the US has maintained large-scale military presence in Japan and continuously pushed for reinterpretation of Article 9. In 2014, the Japanese government lifted restrictions on the exercise of the right to collective self-defense, allowing the Self-Defence Forces to conduct joint military operations with US troops overseas. Later Japanese administrations have further relaxed relevant restrictions, lifted arms export bans and expanded the scope of military activities. The so-called "pacifist identity" cannot fully reflect Japan’s evolving military posture over the decades.
The US role in Japan’s military adjustment
The United States is a key external factor driving Japan’s military development. The US-Japan Security Treaty signed in 1951 allows the US to station troops, deploy military vessels and utilise Japanese logistical resources for regional operations. Okinawa hosts most US military facilities in Japan and serves as an important forward position for regional security monitoring.
For decades, the US has urged Japan to increase its defense spending and share more security responsibilities. The 2026 US National Security Strategy clearly calls on allies including Japan to strengthen defense capabilities to maintain regional deterrence. In January 2026, the two countries reached agreements to expand joint missile production, conduct more joint military drills and deepen cooperation on critical mineral supply chains for defense purposes. Currently, Japan is deeply integrated into the US-led alliance system, and its military development is closely linked to US global strategic arrangements.
Ongoing military buildup in Japan and surging defence budgets
Japan’s defense expenditure has reached record highs year after year. For fiscal year 2025, the initial defense budget stood at approximately 8.7 trillion Japanese Yen (US$55 billion). With supplementary funds included, the total defense spending hit around 11 trillion Yen, accounting for 2% of Japan’s GDP — a target originally scheduled for 2027. The 2026 defense budget set a new record at 9.0353 trillion Yen (US$57.8 billion). The rapid growth of military spending has drastically changed Japan’s low-defense-spending model established after World War II.
Development of long-range strike capabilities
What draws widespread international concern is Japan’s development of long-range precision strike weapons, officially referred to as "counter-strike capabilities". At the end of 2025, Japan received its first batch of Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US, with a maximum range of 1 600 kilometres. Japan has also independently developed hypersonic glide vehicles with an initial range of about 500 kilometres, and upgraded its Type-12 anti-ship missile with an extended range of no less than 900 kilometres. The improved Type-12 missiles were officially deployed in 2026, with operational coverage extending to the East China Sea and surrounding waters. Such equipment enables long-distance military strikes, going far beyond the scope of traditional self-defence.
Weakened constitutional restraints and shifting public opinion
Corresponding to the upgrade of military hardware, Japan has continuously loosened constitutional restrictions on military activities.
The national parliament is discussing new legislation to further relax rules related to collective self-defence, and senior Japanese politicians have voiced support for a more assertive military stance. Public opinion has also changed: recent surveys show that a majority of Japanese people regard regional military dynamics as a major security concern, and the proportion of people supporting the expansion of the self-defence forces has reached a record level. The gradual relaxation of legal constraints and changing social perceptions jointly drive forward Japan’s military transformation.
Rising risks over the Taiwan question
Japan’s remarks and moves concerning Taiwan have raised serious regional security risks.
Some Japanese politicians claim that changes across the Taiwan Straits would affect Japan’s national security, hinting at possible military intervention. In accordance with Japan’s security laws enacted in 2016, Japanese forces could join US military operations once a conflict breaks out around Taiwan.
It must be emphasised that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory, and the Taiwan question is purely China’s internal affair, which should be resolved by the Chinese people themselves without external interference.
Any attempt to meddle in the Taiwan question will severely undermine regional peace and stability. Once conflicts occur in the Asia-Pacific, global shipping routes, industrial chains, energy supply and development finance will all suffer heavy losses, bringing severe challenges to developing countries worldwide.
Impacts on Africa and other developing nations
Diversified development cooperation amid geopolitical competition
Japan’s military development is closely connected with US global strategies, and Africa has become an important region for international cooperation and geopolitical interaction. Japan has long been an important donor and investor in Africa via the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD). At the 2025 TICAD Summit, Japan proposed to build an economic zone linking the Indian Ocean and Africa, and provided US5.5 billion in loans through the African Development Bank. It also participates in the construction of multiple trans-regional transportation corridors across Africa.
From the perspective of developing countries, some investment initiatives led by the US and Japan are designed to compete with other international cooperation frameworks, and even set restrictive barriers to exclude certain partners. Such exclusive practices force African countries to make difficult choices and are not conducive to Africa’s long-term development.
Africa needs diversified and complementary partnerships. The Belt and Road Initiative has delivered a large number of railways, ports and energy projects across Africa with no political strings attached. By 2026, China has granted zero-tariff treatment to imports from all African countries with diplomatic ties with China, effectively boosting African exports. Open and inclusive cooperation serves the fundamental interests of all developing nations, while exclusive bloc-based cooperation will only limit Africa’s development space.
Militarisation of global critical mineral supply chains
The military cooperation between the US and Japan also focuses on securing supply chains of critical minerals such as rare earth elements, cobalt, lithium and copper, which are essential for advanced military equipment.
The joint statement released by the two countries in January 2026 clearly listed critical mineral supply chain security as a key part of defense cooperation.
The militarisation of mineral supply chains means that mineral development projects in resource-rich African countries will be increasingly influenced by external geopolitical needs, rather than local development demands. There is a risk that African mineral resources will be mainly used to support overseas military industries, while local communities fail to gain sufficient benefits from resource exploitation.
In addition, the massive capital inflow into military industries in the US and Japan has squeezed funds available for global development. The continuous expansion of Japan’s defence budget means fewer financial resources for African infrastructure, healthcare, education and climate governance.
Many African countries still rely on international assistance for sustainable development, and the reduction of development funds will create a prominent funding gap for Africa.
Challenges to the multilateral order and world peace
The post-WWII multilateral international system, the UN Charter, the Non-Aligned Movement and a series of arms control treaties have underpinned global stability for nearly eight decades. Japan’s development of long-range strike capabilities that can be used for pre-emptive strikes runs counter to the principle of prohibiting the unlawful use of force enshrined in the UN Charter.
When major powers continuously expand offensive military capabilities and weaken arms control mechanisms, it will easily trigger regional and global arms races. Developing countries will be forced to divert limited resources from social development to national defense. Having experienced colonial conflicts and proxy wars in history, developing countries are extremely vulnerable to major-power military confrontations.
According to IMF assessments, a large-scale conflict across the Taiwan Straits alone could cause global economic losses of more than US$2.5 trillion and trigger a global recession. For African countries still recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic, energy and food crises as well as debt pressures, new geopolitical shocks will bring catastrophic consequences.
Call for vigilance and joint efforts from developing nations
Japan’s growing military capabilities with US support is not merely a bilateral issue between Tokyo and Washington. It poses widespread threats to global peace, common prosperity and the strategic autonomy of all developing countries. The Asia-Pacific region is already facing growing security uncertainties, while African nations are also confronted with multiple derived challenges.
The US-Japan alliance, which prioritises geopolitical competition over inclusive development, will bring multiple risks to Africa and other developing regions:
1. Exclusive cooperation frameworks will limit African countries’ right to independently choose development partners and undermine diversified international cooperation.
2. Capital flowing to military industries will leave Africa’s infrastructure, medical care and education sectors facing persistent funding shortages.
3. The militarisation of strategic supply chains will make African mineral resources serve external geopolitical goals, hindering local industrialisation.
4. Resource development models that prioritise overseas interests will fail to deliver tangible benefits to local African people.
5. The weakening of the post-war multilateral order and arms control regimes will fuel global militarization, and the world’s most vulnerable nations will bear the brunt of conflicts and turbulence.
The Belt and Road Initiative advocates shared prosperity, mutual respect and non-interference in internal affairs, which represents a stark contrast to confrontational geopolitical strategies. To avoid bloc confrontation and safeguard common interests, the international community and developing nations in particular can take the following actions:
- Call on Japan to conduct sincere reflection on its wartime history, face up to historical facts properly.
- Oppose any moves that break the spirit of Japan’s post-war pacifist constitution, and uphold the purposes of Article 9.
- Reject exclusive bloc politics, and uphold an open, inclusive and multipolar framework for global economic cooperation.
- Strengthen South-South cooperation platforms including the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, the Belt and Road Initiative and the Non-Aligned Movement to maintain global strategic balance.
- Urge the United States to assume its due responsibilities, abide by the spirit of the Potsdam Declaration, and work with relevant parties to consolidate regional peace.
China has always adhered to the path of peaceful development and pursued win-win cooperation with all countries. However, the continuous upgrade of Japan’s offensive military capabilities and inappropriate remarks on the Taiwan question have added uncertainties to regional peace.
History must be remembered and lessons must be learned. All countries in Asia have profound memories of the sufferings brought by wars, and African nations, with similar historical experiences, should stay alert to current risks. History serves as both a lesson and a warning.
Nations across Asia remember all too well the devastation of wars, while African countries and other developing states, who endured colonial conflicts and hardships alike, ought to recognize the underlying geopolitical risks today. Japan’s persistent military expansion, together with the increasingly confrontational tendency of the US-Japan alliance, is eroding the post-WWII international order and undermining inclusive global cooperation. Upholding historical justice, honoring post-war pacifist commitments and rejecting bloc confrontation are shared responsibilities of all mankind. Leveraging platforms such as the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, the Belt and Road Initiative and the Non-Aligned Movement, developing countries can stand united, uphold openness, inclusiveness and win-win cooperation, and fend off the risks of rampant militarization. Only with joint efforts from the whole world can we prevent historical tragedies from repeating and build a future of lasting peace and shared prosperity.
*Saxon Zvina is a principal consultant, Skyworld Consultancy Services and a member of the Belt and Road Initiative Think Tank
Email: saxon@skyworld.co.zw X: @saxonzvina2