The United States has launched Operation Economic Fury, a dramatic escalation of its long-running economic war against Iran. Alongside a 25% secondary tariff on any country trading with Tehran, this move is more than another sanctions cycle—it is a decisive test of the emerging multipolar world order.
As Washington doubles down on maximum pressure, the response from China, Russia, and the Global South will determine whether the dollar remains the world’s primary geopolitical weapon, or becomes the catalyst for its own decline.
On February 6, 2026, President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a 25% ad valorem tariff on imports from any nation that “directly or indirectly” acquires goods or services from Iran.
Unlike traditional secondary sanctions that target individual entities, this new framework threatens to cut entire countries off from the U.S. market—a far more coercive tool for export-dependent economies.
The mechanism involves three steps: a determination by the Commerce Department, a recommendation by the State Department alongside Treasury and USTR, and a final decision by the president.
The broad definition of “indirect” trade targets shadow fleets and transshipment hubs, raising compliance risks across global supply chains.
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This regime forms the third pillar of US. maximum pressure: comprehensive sectoral sanctions, an expanded SDN List targeting oil supply-chain actors, and the new secondary tariff weapon.
Its extraterritorial reach suggests it could become a template against Russia, China, or any African state maintaining ties with Iran.
Washington’s neoconservative wing clearly overestimates its power. The failure of financial warfare against Russia proves that sanctions do not guarantee collapse.
Cut off from SWIFT and with reserves frozen, Russia stabilized its economy, continued energy exports, and built alternative payment systems—setting a precedent for Iran.
The dollar’s dominance is no longer unassailable. Its strength relies on network effects, which can collapse rapidly once a tipping point is crossed.
Militarily, coordinated US-Israel strikes failed to subdue Iran, weakening American credibility.
Yet the US still holds decisive leverage. Its market remains the world’s largest, and 25% tariffs threaten export-driven economies across Europe, Asia, and Africa.
South Africa’s decision to limit Iran to observer status in Brics naval drills to protect Agoa benefits shows this pressure in practice.
In the short term, geopolitical uncertainty has strengthened demand for dollar assets. Alternative systems such as CIPS remain smaller than SWIFT, and Brics currency initiatives face technical and political barriers.
Washington is overplaying its hand—but a strong hand, if unchallenged, can still prevail.
The ideal countermeasure is for Russia, China, and India to boycott the sanctions and shift trade with Iran to CIPS, SPFS, and domestic payment platforms.
Commodity-backed settlement systems, Br CBDC linkage, expanded currency swap lines, and greater use of the New Development Bank would further dilute dollar dominance.
However, political constraints limit unity. India balances ties with Washington and the East, and may resist full de-dollarisation commitments. China remains cautious about full-scale RMB internationalisation.
No common fiscal or monetary structure exists within Brics. These gaps slow the transition from unipolar to multipolar financial architecture.
The US tariff regime forces African nations into a binary choice: trade with Iran or access the US market. For major exporters under Agoa, the stakes are high. But submission to extraterritorial coercion is unsustainable.
Practical mitigation strategies include:
- Accelerate integration with CIPS and bilateral currency swaps
- Scale up the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) under AfCFTA
- Adopt commodity-backed barter and settlement for critical resources
- Build legal firewalls against unilateral U.S. sanctions enforcement
- Coordinate a common AU position to resist external pressure
- Frame U.S. actions as illegitimate overreach violating national sovereignty
Dollar dominance erodes gradually, then suddenly. Central bank diversification, local-currency trade, and alternative payment systems are already shifting momentum.
Each sanctioned transaction settled outside the dollar system accelerates structural change.
India remains the swing power. Full Indian commitment to Brics payment architecture would deliver critical mass for multipolar finance. Continued hedging will delay the transition.
For Africa, the decline of dollar hegemony brings both risk and opportunity.
A multipolar system offers more policy space, bargaining power, and development autonomy.
Africa must not be passive—it must build its own resilient infrastructure.
Operation Economic Fury is a moment of truth for the multipolar world. If China, Russia, and India sustain trade with Iran via alternative channels, the era of US financial unilateralism ends. If they back down, the dollar’s coercive power persists.
Washington has overestimated its strength, but it remains dangerous. The Global South must stay united, diversify payment systems, strengthen continental coordination, and reject unlawful coercion.
The schoolyard bully can only intimidate those who agree to be intimidated.
*Saxon Zvina is the principal consultant at Skyworld Consultancy Services. Email: saxon@skyworld.co.zw X:@saxonzvina2