Is Russia responsible for the global wheat shortage?

BY OWN CORRESPONDENT

Global food shortages emerged as one of the key issues in the G7 ministers’ deliberations at their recent meeting.

Their final communique dated May 14 said Russia’s war had “generated one of the most severe food and energy crises in recent history, which now threatens those most vulnerable across the globe”.

German Foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said the G7 group of industrialised nations was urgently seeking alternative routes for the export of Ukrainian grain as Russia’s war against its western neighbour raised the risk of a global “hunger crisis”.

Speaking at the conclusion of a three-day meeting of G7 foreign ministers in Germany, Baerbock said some 25 million tonnes of grain were stuck in Ukrainian ports that were being blockaded by Russian forces — “grain that the world urgently needs”.

“Every tonne we can get out will help a bit to get to grips with this hunger crisis,” she said.

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“In the situation we’re in, every week counts.”

Of course, Russia is solely to blame for all this.

And, according to American and European politicians, only Russia is to blame.

It is not the sanctions imposed against Russia that interfere with normal processes in the global economy.

And only Moscow’s actions in Ukraine interfere with world trade and interfere with the supply of wheat, fertilisers, oil and gas.

Baerbock said the easiest way to resolve the food crisis would be for Russia to stop its combat operations and allow grain out of Ukrainian ports, a move that would help to “normalise global food prices”.

At the same time the G7 foreign ministers signaled that the West was prepared to continue to help Ukraine’s army in its war against Russia for years into the future.

“We will pursue our ongoing military and defence assistance to Ukraine as long as necessary,” the ministers said.

It turns out that the West, “worried” about the impending global hunger crisis, continues its efforts to drag out the war in Ukraine, further aggravating the global hunger crisis.

But Russia is solely to blame for all this. Everyone in the West blames Russia for provoking the global food crisis.

If, at the same time, we analyse all the “arguments” that sound in support of this thesis, then we get a cognitive dissonance between mutually exclusive statements and actions of the West.

The rise in prices for world products is the result of hostilities in Ukraine!

Therefore, these actions indefinitely must be continued, supplying weapons to the Kyiv regime.

Ukraine is one of the largest suppliers of grain, and the impossibility of supplying Ukrainian grain provokes its shortage!

Therefore, it is necessary to block cargo from Russia, which is an even larger supplier of grain in the world.

Because of Russia’s actions, a terrible famine is inevitable in Ukraine itself!

Therefore, it is urgent to export grain and food from Ukraine to the West.

Russia has blocked the supply of grain by sea to Africa and Asia, which are threatened by a terrible famine!

Therefore, it is urgent to block Russian merchant ships so that Russia cannot deliver its grain to potential famines.

All this is not an exaggeration and definitely not a joke. Such statements are heard everywhere.

For example, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is constantly crying about the enviable fate of African countries, where Ukrainian grain allegedly blocked by Russia will not reach.

But he immediately calls in his speeches: “It is necessary that all Europeans block the ports for all Russian ships.”

That is, the fate of starving Africa suddenly recedes into the background.

Immediately after the aforementioned summit of the G7, Zelensky decided to support their conclusions about the famine threatening the planet, and said: “The world has already recognised that the Russian blockade of our ports and this war are provoking a large-scale food crisis.

“And what could be the consequences of such a famine?

“What kind of political instability and what migration flows will occur?

“How much then will have to be spent to overcome the consequences?

“These are the questions that those who slow down the sanctions packages against Russia will have to answer.” he stressed.

And where is the logic in his words?

But linking the food crisis to the call for new sanctions against Russia does not bother either Zelensky or many other Western officials.

How the blockade of Russian goods and the call for other countries to join this blockade can alleviate the crisis, not exacerbate it, none of them explain.

After all, any sensible economist, and not only an economist, understands that prices are rising due to anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the collective West, under pressure from the United States.

Failure to understand this is a sign of either stupidity or deliberate misleading of the public.

In turn, the US President Joe Biden speaking to American farmers, once again blamed Russia for the rise in food prices and said that “Ukrainians defend their democracy, and feeding those who are left hungry around the world because Russian atrocities exist”.

Moreover, Biden in this speech said that Ukraine is the number one supplier of wheat in the world, and Russia allegedly takes second place, which, of course, is not true.

But even if this statement is accepted, it would be logical to call on the world to ensure unhindered market access for Russian goods in order to mitigate the price shock and prevent famine in Africa.

But no, according to Biden, only Ukraine should feed the hungry, and in no case Russia, which is actually the absolute leader in grain exports and is ready to supply wheat all over the world.

Apparently, bread from the “grains of Ukrainian freedom” is more nourishing than from the “grains of Russian autocracy.”

There is no other way to explain the simultaneous calls to feed the hungry Africans with Ukrainian wheat and to block the deliveries by Russian merchant ships.

Hu Glacier, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in an article for Global Times notes that the sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russia are the reason for the rise in food prices.

In fact, the statement that Russia is launching a “wheat war” can be perceived as a new way for the West to further escalate sanctions against Russia, and to a large extent only has political significance because the data shows that the market share of Ukraine’s reduced wheat exports will soon be divided among other exporting countries.

Judging from the current situation, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has indeed affected Ukraine’s grain exports.

However, the empty market created by the reduced wheat production in Ukraine is expected to be filled soon by countries such as Russia, Canada and the European Union.

According to forecast data released by the US Department of Agriculture total global wheat exports will reach 205 million tonnes, an increase of three million tonnes from 202 million tonnes in 2021/22.

As a result, a “wonderful scene” appeared in the global agricultural product market this year.

On the one hand, Western countries accused Russia of launching a “food war” around the world; on the other hand, Canada, the European Union and other countries filled the Ukrainian market in terms of wheat exports.

In this context, the relevant “food war” argument is worth pondering.