ZIMBABWE'S food security is expected to improve in the second quarter of this year with a possibly favourable 2026 harvest following the forecast of above-average rains this season.
According to the latest Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fews Net) report, the rains will result in minimal Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.
The report said many households were expected to consume food from their own production.
“Meanwhile, as market supplies increase, staple-food prices are expected to be at a seasonal low, improving access for non-crop-producing households, especially in urban areas,” Fews Net said.
It said above-average rainfall between October 1 and December 15 in most areas facilitated engagement in land preparation and planting activities.
The report, however, indicated that Mashonaland Central, the northern areas of Mashonaland East and localised areas in Masvingo province received below-average rainfall since October.
Keep Reading
- Zim hit by grain shortage
- Lower Gweru villagers appeal for food aid
- Hunger stalks region
- Food crisis looms in Sadc
“Key informants report localised variability in rainfall distribution even in areas recording above-average rains, with some pockets experiencing drier conditions and uneven spatial and temporal distribution,” the report read.
“Even with poor temporal distribution of rainfall, the planted area has been expanded compared to last year. Pasture or veld conditions have improved across most areas.”
Fews Net further reported that the government suspended import duty on fertiliser, specifically ammonium nitrate and urea, early this month.
It noted that the policy change is expected to increase supplies and lower fertiliser prices, improving access and supporting increases in crop yields.
Fews Net said the above-average cumulative rainfall most likely would result in higher-than-average incidences of crop pests and livestock diseases.
The report cautioned that the above-average rains may also increase crop pests and livestock diseases. Poor households may struggle to access pesticides and veterinary drugs due to high prices and low incomes. While this is unlikely to trigger widespread production losses, affected households may see reduced yields and income.
Fews Net said water availability was projected to improve thanks to favourable rainfall in 2024-25, which elevated groundwater levels. This will enhance both household and livelihood water access during the 2025-26 rainy season.
Food prices, including maize, are expected to rise during the lean season (January-March) and fall once harvest begins in April, it said.
Processed foods like maize meal and cooking oil may experience above-average price increases before the green harvest alleviates shortages. By March, new harvests will start filling deficits, though some areas may remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), where households meet minimum food needs but struggle with other essentials. Crisis-level outcomes (IPC Phase 3) are expected in a few surplus-producing areas of Mashonaland, affected by poor rainfall in 2024-25.
Indications are that seasonal low grain prices will also improve market access.
"However, despite these consumption improvements, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will persist as poor households continue to struggle to meet their non-food needs," Fews Net said.