‘Poll survey, wake-up call for MDC Alliance’

POLITICAL analysts have urged MDC Alliance presidential candidate, Nelson Chamisa, to objectively analyse a recent poll survey report produced by Afrobarometer to correct the highlighted grey areas and increase his winning chances ahead of next month’s general elections.

BY CHARLES LAITON

The analysts warned that it would be suicidal for Chamisa to dismiss the report without critically analysing it.

The survey predicts that Chamisa would garner 31% against Zanu PF presidential candidate Emmerson Mnangagwa’s 42%, a result which points to a re-run election.

Political commentator Maxwell Saungweme said: “The issue is that politics in Zimbabwe is highly dynamic, and a day in Zimbabwe’s politics is a very long time. A lot may have changed with the passing on of Morgan Tsvangirai and the rise of typhoon Chamisa . . . the emergence of Robert Mugabe’s National Patriotic Front (NPF) and its aligning to MDC Alliance is another factor that may change numbers. The launch of party manifestos especially the MDC-T’s SMART document may also change the voting numbers in a very big way.”

He added: “If anything, the survey is helpful to the MDC Alliance not to be complacent, but work hard to get a definitive win. The MDC Alliance needs to win by a large number to debunk rigging…..the survey was done at a time when people realised that they replaced Mugabe by a military junta hence their dislike of the whole military removal of Mugabe.

“It’s true the country is going nowhere or in the wrong direction with Mnangagwa. Changing a country from a police state to a military one is not a pointer in the right direction. Chanting anti-corruption slogans while shielding known corrupt ministers is not a step in the right direction either . . . so many things are just wrong and going wrong and there is no need for a survey to see that Zimbabwe is not headed in the right direction. So the survey is spot on.”

University of Zimbabwe (UZ) political science lecturer Eldred Masunungure, echoed Saungweme’s sentiments and defended his organisations findings saying the MDC Alliance should take the results seriously.

“All respondents were randomly selected and samples were distributed across provinces and urban or rural areas in proportion to their share in the national population and every adult had an equal chance of being selected in the survey because of the sampling protocol,” Masunungure said.

“If any political party, especially the MDC Alliance, decides to ignore the survey it will do so at its own peril . . . the research included findings on various factors of the election process including perceptions on the essence of voting, the authenticity of the elections and the independence of the electoral body,” he said dismissing reports that his organisation was linked to the ruling party Zanu PF. “It is improper for some misguided elements to suggest that the MPOI’s survey was conducted in order to favour Zanu PF.”

But Human Rights Watch’s Southern Africa director, Dewa Mavhinga said the Afrobarometer report should be taken with a “pinch of salt” given that the country was coming from a history of extreme polarisation and a background of political violence.


“What is key now is the authorities, the government to create a conducive environment for the holding of free, fair and credible elections and for Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (Zec) to open up and ensure a transparent and independent free and fair vote so that Zimbabweans can freely express themselves and choose leaders and political parties of their preference without fear of intimidation, threats or violence.”

United Kingdom-based political analyst, Gladys Hlatshwayo said although it would not be conclusive to read much into surveys in predicting poll results, the same should not be dismissed at face value.

“Surveys may not be the best way to predict polls and the case of the last US elections and Brexit are lessons to keep in mind, more so in the Zimbabwean society where there is a lot of fear. Nevertheless, surveys can be used to understand political phenomena and therefore should not be dismissed. The Afrobarometer survey indicates a runoff possibility but even significantly it indicates that the opposition has doubled its support base and Zanu PF’s support is dwindling since the last Afrobarometer survey. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues,” Hlatshwayo said.

12 Comments

  1. Janana Bikaldo

    These guys who made such a skewed survey are evidently biased towards Zanu pf for one reason or the other.Why in say so is because if you go to any growth point today in every 10 people that you ask about their preferred candidate in the coming presidential elections 6 will be for Chamisa and 4 will be for Mnangagwa.Its even worse in urban areas were you would mostly find that Nine will be for Mnangagwa and 1 for Chamisa.Where do you really your survey guys?How come some of us have never come across these survey counts since 1980 elections up to now?Not even close people that i know have never bumped into these guys all their life yet they are always giving us these nonsensical survey.Do they really exist?Because if they did they would have told us the real truth.Or did Zanu pf paid them to make such a stupid survey so that the mafia party will ave something to fall back on in the event that they are taken to court after stealing the impending election,because zanu pf can splash millions if they really want their dirty jobs done.And who would resist such a temptation if millions are splashed in their face for just saying this one will loose and that one will win? Musatambe ne mafioso guys.

  2. Janana Bikaldo

    These guys who made such a skewed survey are evidently biased towards Zanu pf for one reason or the other.Why in say so is because if you go to any growth point today in every 10 people that you ask about their preferred candidate in the coming presidential elections 6 will be for Chamisa and 4 will be for Mnangagwa.Its even worse in urban areas were you would mostly find that Nine will be for Mnangagwa and 1 for Chamisa.Where do you really your survey guys?How come some of us have never come across these survey counts since 1980 elections up to now?Not even close people that i know have never bumped into these guys all their life yet they are always giving us these nonsensical survey.Do they really exist?Because if they did they would have told us the real truth.Or did Zanu pf paid them to make such a stupid survey so that the mafia party will ave something to fall back on in the event that they are taken to court after stealing the impending election,because zanu pf can splash millions if they really want their dirty jobs done.And who would resist such a temptation if millions are splashed in their face for just saying this one will lose and that one will win? Musatambe ne mafioso guys.

  3. you are biased yourself

  4. This survey is totally biased. PRC will also score high in this election. Mark my words. The electoral field is surely not fair. These media institutions are biased towards ZANU PF AND MDC ALLIANCE. You are ignoring other political parties which is not fair.

  5. there is no wake up call here but thats the way zimbabweans politics is and its unchangeable even if you fill up 10 stadiums at one go people will place their vote on the revolutionary party and thats the naked reality

  6. This survey is biased. In Zimbabwe where Dzamara disappeared you don’t just say i vote for Chamisa telling that to strangers. You disappear. There is a lot of fear among people especially in rural areas.

  7. Unoshaikwa chokwadi, kutaura kuti unoda kuvhotera opposition. Hazvitaurwi, zvizivire mumoyo mako unofa.

  8. Linda Ndlovu- UZ

    Surveys are lying. In Zimbabwe there was too much polarisation and the after math of 2008 run off election has traumatised Zimbabweans. People only feel safe to declare allegiance to Zanu Pf and its president in public on in the face of strangers. That is the reason why people feel safe wearing Zanu PF regalia and wearing opposition regalia is like inviting death sentence upon your self.

  9. mark my words Chamisa is going to win in the first round.no need for a rerun unless if Zanu can manage to rig.no normal person who knows ED’s history will vote for him .my prediction is that on the presidential election it will be 83% for chamisa and 17% for ed.then on the parliamentary it will be 75% for mdc and 25% zanu pf coz some zanu supporters vill vote fore their mps but not chose ED.zvabva kumasowe hapana anoramba!!!

  10. Farai J Nhire

    Zanu Pf candidate Ed will beat Chamisa by almost 2 million votes. Chamisa has no much suport in the regions with the most numbers of registered voters. Mdc Suporters Please Musazvikwidze Ndege Yemashanga. Ed is a man of facts not speculation and take my warning seriously. The man is currently preocupied with other things and not elections. Intellipence gurus depend on real facts not probabilities.

  11. Comment…Zanu PF inogona kunyeperwa neavo vanoti vakaita wongororo. Hazvina kwazvo izvi. MDC-T yakambonyeperwawo nababa Jukwa payaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.

  12. These surveys usually portray the wishes of their conductors and/or publishers. However the monopoly that one party has on ZBC radio & TV (including sister stations Star and Zii) and Herald means some areas only get to know one party only so they think ndiyo inofanira kutonga iyoyo pamurairo

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