‘Mnangagwa won’t win first round vote’

A Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI) survey says 42% of registered voters will vote for Zanu PF leader, President Emmerson Mnangagwa if elections were held today, with MDC Alliance leader, Nelson Chamisa projected to get 31% of the ballots, necessitating a presidential election run-off. The survey report was released yesterday at a MPOI meeting in Bulawayo.


MPOI said 25% of the electorate’s intentions were unknown.

The findings were gathered from a pre-election baseline survey held between April 28 and May 13 by pollster Afrobarometer.

Speaking at a workshop in Bulawayo yesterday, MPOI principal researcher, Stephen Ndoma said their findings may have changed as political dynamics were shifting.

“We asked our respondents if presidential elections were held tomorrow (during the survey last month), which presidential candidate from which political party they would vote for and 42% said they would vote for Zanu PF, compared to the 31% for the MDC-T, combined party and alliance,” he said.

“Twenty-five percent of voters, who could not declare their vote, making it difficult to predict the actual outcome of the race because we are still far from the elections and a lot of dynamics are taking place now and we can never know who they will vote for.”

Ndoma said the survey was conducted with a sample size of 2 400 people, with balanced gender and 63% of the sample size was drawn from rural areas and 37% urban areas.

“All respondents were randomly selected, and samples were distributed across provinces and urban or rural areas in proportion to their share in the national population and every adult had an equal chance of being selected in the survey because of the sampling protocol,” he said.

Ndoma said more than 77% of registered voters said they would vote in this year’s election.

“More than 77% of Zimbabweans said they will definitely vote in this year’s election, 9% said they will probably vote, while 5% said they may or may not vote,” he said. The research included findings on various factors of the election process including perceptions on the essence of voting, the authenticity of the elections, the independence of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, voter registration issues and possibility of a government of national unity.

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  1. josphat mugadzaweta

    he wont win at all. ko vaya vaiti 70% ndevapiko?

    1. Mainly the illiterate and poverty-stricken rural folk that do not know what development is keep on voting for ZANU. No sane person in the urban areas, except those in party structures and benefiting directly vote for ZANU in the urban areas.

      1. Do not judge the rural folk that way, I do not think they are all that poor and illiteracy really doesn’t apply here. They probably make better analyses of things than us the so-called town folks. I have had a chance to travel extensively around the country and have seen things differently! Furthermore, they are the registered voters while we in towns “don’t have time” for it!

        1. me too i travel, some people or more people they say they need a change

  2. Afrobarometer principal Researcher, Stephen Ndoma, is fooling himself and no one else. If by his own admission he says these results may not be a true representation of the current political situation, why bother us? We all know that rural voters are now supporting MDC-T charmed by the energetic and charismatic Advocate Nelson Chamisa, the MDC Alliance Presidential candidate. This research organisation died with its founder, the late Prof. Masiphula Sithole. Since then it’s being run by Zanu PF worshipers for profit. Please give us a break.

  3. if 25% did not divulge their preference its obvious they did so because of fear caused by zanu pf history of victimizing people of their political beliefs.so these are likely to Chamisa supporters.

    1. So we add 25% to 31% and get 56% so pfee no re-run.

  4. Commander Guvamatongo

    The surveys are only credible if they predict MDC win, I guess. The writing is on the wall. All predictions are for ZANU PF win so far, they can differ on margins but the common denominator is ZANU PF win.

  5. I dont buy these %centages as else we read ED will wallop young man Chamisa and am going by that lets not forget in American elections old man Trump was not given a chance in hell but he pulled a shocker.

  6. This is a silly survey designed to justify zanupf rigging in advance. No party in the world can ever win a fair election with such high levels of suffering of people in its hands, even the rural voter wont vote for such crap

  7. chinonetsa kumusha vanhu vanenge varimutaundishipi marombe eZANU

  8. the opposite is true guys dont worry varikukwidza zanu ndege yemashanga yet reality vanoiziva

  9. nonsense

  10. All able minded zimbabweans,go to your beloved families in the rural outskirts and tell

    them the truth about the true need of leadership and governing party change in zimbabwe Zanu pf have dismally failed us 38 years of non service delivery and we will never ever change as long as the evil doers are keeping closing our outside entrance doors.

  11. From the 2500, 1000 where of those working in ED’S Farm.

  12. Using statistic to determine the votes is like looking at todays train in last years’ timetable

  13. We can only hope that the research explains the sampling and provincial distribution of the sample. otherwise ipfungwa dzevanhu ve Zibagwe and Uzumba Marambe Kufunga constituencies idzo.

    1. True. The sample and survey methods were far far far from being representative of the entire Zimbbawean population. Let the researchers tell them what they wanna hear since they are paid handsomely for these futile tests of theories.

  14. THE HEADLINE ED WILL NOT WIN not win first round to me its a -poor choice of a headline. its like only ED win not but Chamisa will. the proper headline should have been * ED LEADS IN FIRST ROUND” . the headline is meant to down play EDs popularuty in opinion polls

  15. maitiro enyu aya

  16. #EDhamyvotesndopanopereranyayayose

  17. #EDhasmyvote ndipo panoperera nyaya yose.

  18. Saka ED ndiye achavaka dubai pazimba here iye asina dream yacho.chamisa will win nd hakuna unity gvnt.chamisa ‘s element will be present in th nxt gvnt nd it looks lyk he’s gona be dominant

  19. Comment…the majority of the pole who itching for are not registered voters eg vendors and boys remushika shika

  20. i doubt if the sample size is the true representative of the total registered voters population……. you are lying.

  21. Machafa nenhamo muchingoti vanhu verural,,,,rural kudii kwavo.. voterai mabullet train enyu mega,,,nonsense..

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