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NewsDay

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Mujuru-Tsvangirai coalition: Reality or pie in sky

News
The recent chance meeting in Gweru between opposition leaders Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC-T and the Zimbabwe People First (ZimPF)’s Joice Mujuru has created a hype of expectation among political weary citizens, while the governing Zanu PF party appears to have been rattled.

The recent chance meeting in Gweru between opposition leaders Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC-T and the Zimbabwe People First (ZimPF)’s Joice Mujuru has created a hype of expectation among political weary citizens, while the governing Zanu PF party appears to have been rattled.

BY RICHARD CHIDZA

thokozani-kuhupemorga-tsvangiraijoice-mujuru-and-didymus-mutasa-join-hands-as-they-march-in-gweru-on-saturday

However, intimate details have emerged and it now seems the champagne bottles might have been popped too early.

Tsvangirai’s party, the biggest opposition force to Mugabe’s nearly four-decade rule, remains as divided as ever on whether or not to team up with Mujuru.

The reason is her previous links to the establishment, having served 34 years in government, 10 of them as second-in-command to Mugabe. A senior MDC-T official said a group of Tsvangirai’s top lieutenants remained sceptical of a pact with Mujuru.

“The first thing is we need time to understand who ZimPF is. They are protesting their expulsion from Zanu PF and if conditions improve, they could go back. If we go to bed with them, there are genuine fears that we could wake up as politburo members because Mujuru would have taken us back to her party,” NewsDay heard from a senior official who requested not to be named for fear of victimisation.

“If Mugabe goes, Mujuru can still go and lead Zanu PF because he is her only impediment to taking over. If anything, Mujuru still commands a sizeable support in the ruling party,”

Political analyst Alexander Rusero said there were slim chances of a Mujuru-Tsvangirai coalition ahead of 2018.

“I do not think Tsvangirai will agree to play second fiddle to Mujuru. History will record that the MDC-T leader gave Mugabe his first electoral defeat and from that, Tsvangirai has built some sort of cult figure out of himself. He has the mass support, but critically, Mujuru holds sway within the establishment, especially the security sector,” he said.

“Mujuru also brings in the liberation struggle component, which, for decades, has lacked within the country’s opposition ranks. And the recent public assault on her personality relating to wartime activities has cemented her place among opponents of the regime.” The Gweru meeting, another source said, was “an accident and Zimbabweans must not read much into it”.

Mujuru and Tsvangirai’s paths met in Gweru last month and the two were forced by circumstances to address a joint rally and engage in a joint protest against Mugabe.

University of Zimbabwe lecturer and political analyst Eldred Masunungure agreed that events in Gweru could have been blown out of proportion.

“The media and politicians have tended to overplay the significance of Mujuru and Tsvangirai’s chance meeting in Gweru and the subsequent joint rally-protest march. There is need to approach this with a sober mind, given the history of coalitions in the country.

“They have never survived the test of time and this envisaged coming together is not an exception. There are many impediments to be considered before we can begin to talk of a real coalition that can stand the test of time or even one that can survive beyond the 2018 elections,” Masunungure said.

He added that the real test for Tsvangirai and Mujuru would be in presenting one leader to take on Zanu PF in general elections expected in 2018.

“Until the protagonists can agree on a single candidate to contest for presidency in the coming elections, sceptics could be justified to hold their champagne bottles. That is the elephant in the room, rather the fly in the ointment. Can Mujuru defer for an MDC-T candidate anointed by Tsvangirai or anyone the party puts forward?” Masunungure argued.

“Or can the MDC-T agree to defer and pave way for Mujuru? The chances of these parties agreeing on a single presidential candidate are remote in my view.

“However, they could come up with some sort of understanding in the fielding of candidates in which the parties agree to consider each other’s candidates more in one province or another.”

Asked why he thought Tsvangirai might not be presented as a candidate, Masunungure pointed to the MDC-T leader’s controversial move to appoint additional deputies.

“Speculation is rife over Tsvangirai’s motivation to unilaterally appoint additional vice-presidents. It is an awkward and unusual scenario and we have every right to posit on the motivation. It could be that he might be in doubt that he will be able to withstand the rigours of another presidential poll and, therefore, this is a plan to hand over power to someone, who will then stand on behalf of the party. It boggles the mind how one could appoint three vice-presidents,” Masunungure said.

South Africa-based Zimbabwean PhD student, Tawanda Mukurunge, said there was need for openness in the coming months before an agreement could be reached for a grand coalition.

“If they are transparent with each other from the beginning, as to the leadership structure, then it can work out. The problem with Zimbabwean politics is that people always ambush each other, like let’s put so and so in front at initial stages and we will kick him out once we are in power. They should have clear structures as well as on power sharing. If they don’t, we will see yet another acrimonious split of the opposition,” he said.

Media reports claim Tsvangirai is torn between two groups within the MDC-T; one pro-coalition and another, viciously opposed to a pact with Mujuru.

Party secretary-general Douglas Mwonzora, national chairman Lovemore Moyo, vice-president Thokozani Khupe and spokesperson Obert Gutu form the core of the pro-coalition group, while new vice-president Nelson Chamisa, Murisi Zvizwai, deputy organiser Amos Chibaya and deputy national treasure Chalton Hwende, reportedly form the fulcrum of the anti-pact faction.

On the other hand, Mujuru has already received endorsement from former Finance minister Tendai Biti’s People’s Democratic Party, but Tsvangirai has used the National Electoral Reform Agenda to bring most fringe parties under his thumb.

Mukurunge said a grand coalition could be the tonic to long-suffering Zimbabweans.

He said while Tsvangirai could provide the bulwark of ordinary support from the critical mass, Mujuru’s links to the crucial security sector provided further stability.

“In my view, a coalition has come at the right time because all those young voices rebelling on social media platforms and toyi- toying in the streets need mature political guidance,” Mukurunge said.

So Zimbabweans might have to wait a little longer to see the grand coalition come to fruition or better still, decide on which of the political characters currently in circulation should be given the job of handling the immediate post-Mugabe era that threatens to be on shifting sand.