Periods heading towards elections, especially in Zimbabwe, are always packed with action and drama. The 2018 general elections won’t be different either.
By Pardon Maguta,Our Reader
Speculation over possible regime change, real political violence, proliferation of opposition political parties and other surprises must be expected as we race towards the do-or-die polls, which Zanu PF cannot afford to lose. The elections will be fiercely fought given the high stakes and the winner-takes all electoral system.
A lot is being peddled about the unproven strength of the Morgan Tsvangirai-led MDC-T to muscle Zanu PF led by President Robert Mugabe out of power. I say unproven strength because for the past three years, they have not contested in any by election, their last electoral race in 2013 being a nightmare.
It is not only Tsvangirai who is heavily tipped to defeat Zanu PF, as the Zimbabwe People First (ZimPF) led by Joice Mujuru is also said to have the arsenal to shred Zanu PF to pieces in the coming polls.
A look at the MDC-T shows that in the past 15 years, it has failed to deliver the knockout punch to Zanu PF in the polls because of different reasons ranging from vote rigging, political violence against its supporters and, on its part, complacency, incompetence and poor political strategies
The above facts are a clear indication that the MDC-T and its leader Tsvangirai can neither outrightly win an election nor force a run-off against Zanu PF if they decide to go it alone. They will fail. In fact, they will be heavily humiliated.
There is also talk of ZimPF torpedoing Zanu PF from power. Mujuru is new to opposition politics. She has a lot to learn. The advantage her party brings to the opposition is that she has significant support from war veterans, most of whom used to be Zanu PF merchants of violence in previous elections.
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As a war veteran herself and others in her party, they have pockets of support from some government institutions which used to support Zanu PF en masse.
But it is far-fetched to think that she can get the 50% + 1 vote outside a coalition. She can win by being part and parcel of an association of opposition parties brought together by the desire to liberate their country from the vulture-like policies of Zanu PF and Mugabe.
Most people think Zanu PF is finished because of the factions. It is divided, but not yet finished.
Time is running out, so the sooner the coalition is formed the better. A mouth-watering victory for the opposition parties can only happen if they form a coalition.
Something else different from a coalition will culminate in another Zanu PF victory.
