ALL nations are geared for the United Nations COP21 Climate change Summit, to be held in Paris at the end of this month. If the enthusiasm and expectations characterising the feverish preparations are anything to go by, then we expect something positive to come out of the much hyped international gathering.
Of course, these are only wishes and if they could add up, then, as beggars, we have no choice but to ride. This summit will lead to the invasion of skies, triggering clouds of carbon emissions, as the experts from all corners of the globe head to Paris.
As we speak, every participating nation is under some kind of tension and anxiety, especially the host nation, that has already fired its long time weatherman, Philippe Verdier, for publishing a book, accusing top climate experts of misleading the world on global warming. Whether the publication of this book was timely and meant to spoil the French climate cuisine or coincidental is immaterial. In the United States, research has it that, the American public are not worried about global warming. On the other hand, Russian scientists have rejected the idea that carbon dioxide may be responsible for global warming. You may call them sceptics or deniers depending on one’s ideological point of view.
That one aside, global warming is there and is threatening to make the world a Gehenna. Nothing stops climate change faster than our actions, the same actions that have contributed to this current quagmire. If once again we are to revisit the ideology of anthropogenic (human induced) climate change, we shall witness that there are those who benefit from it. This will obviously help empower the understanding of the readership regarding the climate change matrix. Those who benefit from climate change are quite influential, powerful, rich and smart, therefore, the buck stops with them, they actually pull the strings behind the scenes and, as such, the Paris matrix may have been sealed already. We may not want to hear this, but this is the whole thrust of the matter regarding the global warming discourse.
These powerful forces are at the centre of the deliberate concealment of the truth and the fundamental issues of climate change, that is, what is being said against the backdrop of what is actually obtaining on the ground. Predominantly, the discourse of climate change has thrived through manipulating the truth and maintaining public ignorance. Models and forecasts of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are not for the faint-hearted as well as those of unstable nervous disposition. There are reasons for that. The possible clash of scientific understanding against the academic, socio-economic and political interests is currently manifesting its ugly head. This will prevail at the COP21 Climate change Summit in Paris this month end.
Those who call the shots behind the scenes are also influential members of The Club of Rome and The Paris Club with interests in carbon trading businesses. They shall not be visible at the COP21 in Paris, but their interests are going to be taken into account. Welcome to the global climate change politics, “the mother of all deadlines”against “the mother of all markets”.
Africa, the cursed continent without any significant voice, is always experiencing a rude awakening at the hands of dominant forces. The major undoing about Africa is that, it is characterised by climate mercenaries, charlatans and Judas Iscariots of global warming, who never cease to trigger surprises. Some African states can be easily manipulated and hoodwinked into supporting unpopular decisions from carbon emitting nations. Maybe it is a result of chronic levels of poverty or that Africa has no interests to safeguard besides the sovereignty of its member states. Although Africa bears the greatest proportion of risks and impacts posed by climate change and at the same time does not contribute significant global warming potentials, it does not seem to care much. Africa’s other major undoing is that, it always negotiates from a weaker point due to its lack of resources, as well as a situation burdened by climate impacts. While Africa always expects developed countries to fund its climate change initiatives, it does not trust that the powerful Western countries will honour their pledges. Above all, Africa lacks concrete commitments and political will to fund its own climate problems.
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The most critical issue that will be the focal point at the COP21 Paris Climate change Summit, is how to cut global carbon emissions. Instead of pledging to cut global carbon emissions, rich carbon emitting nations should commit themselves to do so rather than to continue glossing in climate rhetoric. The fundamental question regards to the monitoring and policing instruments in place to enforce the pledges and commitments.
Outwardly, deals that will be struck will appear to make no stink, but inwardly and surprisingly, these conferences always give lots of leverage to carbon emitting nations. Countries that will try to abide by their commitments and pledges may be left antagonised by these machinations. If elements of self-interests are going to supersede reasoning and moral rearmament at this historic summit then, there is likely going to be a problem. These negotiations could go a long way and prove to be a milestone if the nations choose to stick to the virtues of co-operation. But the history of these conferences are characterised by lots of glib and failure. From Kyoto in 1997 to the deceptive Copenhagen Accord of 2009. There has not been joy.
If there is going to be voting of any kind, then dubious voting blocks are going to emerge. And out of choice, since Africa is in China’s pocket, it will vote the Chinese way. But there are also good guys and blue-eyed boys of the West, such as Rwanda, Senegal, Gabon and Botswana, who may also do the worst to disappoint. Africa is in favour of the Green Climate Fund aimed at transferring funds from rich nations to the poor countries. While that may happen, the developed countries may be worried about issues of accountability and massive leakages of funds by most African countries. Instead of being used for clean development mechanisms, the funds will be used by African governments to buy votes.
It is also everybody’s dearest wish that these negotiations provide environmental solutions rather than political ones. But sadly, it is the political process that always prevails. While major polluting nations are having problems in sticking to gazetted carbon emission levels, we are not told the truth about what their current emissions are. The public also need strategies that will make them understand their planet rather being told. We hope that sanity will prevail in Paris. We keep our fingers crossed.
●Peter Makwanya is a climate change communicator. He writes in his own capacity and can be contacted on: [email protected]
