JUST four years ago two household names appeared on the ballot paper in Nigeria’s general election: Jonathan and Buhari.
by Daniel Akinmade Emejulu
Goodluck Jonathan emerged winner in the 2011 Presidential race. Then, in the north of the country, violence erupted immediately, taking over 800 lives even though foreign observers considered it Nigeria’s fairest poll since her return to democracy sixteen years ago.
Fast forward to 2015 and the leading names on the ballot paper stayed the same, but Muhammadu Buhari’s dramatic victory on this occasion changes the story of Nigeria’s familiar rivals and made national history too.
This was Buhari’s fourth attempt to seize power from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) — Africa’s largest and most heavily financed political machine. PDP held the presidency since the military handed over power, winning all four elections, including the handover vote in 1999. The opposition seemed destined to be the runner-up with Buhari as its perennial candidate. What changed?
Since 2011, the Jonathan administration achieved significant victories in agricultural reform, highway infrastructure development, privatisation of the infamously plagued power sector and investments in a 21st century rail network.
On his watch, foreign investments to the tune of $59 billion US dollar flowed into Nigeria and the gross domestic product rebasing “exercise” officially placed Nigeria as Africa’s largest economy. In the last four years, he was called the most criticised President in Nigeria’s history, a democratic accomplishment for a country familiar will tyrannical media censorship.
He also established first-in-kind medical trauma centres, new Federal universities and launched programs such as YouWin to tackle youth unemployment. The “excesses” of Boko Haram
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Such achievements were overshadowed — and sometimes even unidentified — amid the strong sense of failure to fight and defeat Boko Haram.
Without the Boko Haram issue, his legacy would be favourably compared to his immediate predecessors. But most Nigerians, like the world, learned about Boko Haram and watched them metamorph in the Jonathan years. While more complicated than insurgencies more swiftly contained in Nigeria’s past, Jonathan was not spared from such unflattering comparisons.
At the outset, his government was criticised as slow to act and hiding behind the notion of terrorism as a global phenomenon, with Nigeria merely experiencing her turn. The official language used in response to security matters did not help either.
There was constant reference to the “menace” and “excesses” of Boko Haram — rhetoric which like the fight itself, did not fully grapple the humanitarian crises and on-going atrocities which desperately need to be wiped out.
As swing voters still deliberated, Charles Soludo, former governor of Nigeria’s Central Bank released a scathing report on the economic policies in Jonathan’s term, questioning if the rebasing “exercise” was really an achievement — among a longer list of macroeconomic critiques.
The Ministry of Finance disputed his findings but without the same level of mainstream attention. Then, former PDP President Obasanjo (considered the Godfather who picked Jonathan to be Yar’Adua’s VP running mate back in 2007) tore his party membership card to shreds and denounced the current government.
Despite these setbacks, the Boko Haram problem —most painfully shown through the nightmare abduction of the Chibok girls—remained the first among other problems, including widespread corruption and debacles in the oil sector. Choosing your bedmates carefully
Two weeks before the election, a spate of new ministers were curiously appointed, one lived in the eye of a social media storm now referred to as Ekiti Gate, where he is allegedly heard co-plotting to rig a gubernatorial election in a leaked recording.
His subsequent confirmation as Minister came despite protest in the Senate by lawmakers in the opposition party, and popular belief in the veracity of the leaked recording. Another PDP stalwart and one of Jonathan’s campaign directors, traded high-school calibre insults with opponents on social media throughout the campaign and made dubious statements that jarred voters who saw him as a would-be Minster in a new Jonathan government.
Young people on social media blogs berate the now serving state governor at the centre of EkitiGate.
They wonder how his round-the-clock work as a PDP campaign mouthpiece allowed any time for running affairs of the state — where the legitimacy of his electoral triumph is questioned. Several choices about ministers to sack and those to enlist (or keep) were met with raised eyebrows or shaking heads—and his kitchen cabinet was even more unpopular.
#NigeriaDecides
2015 was not the typical “appearance” of Buhari as the opposition’s predictable choice. This was a movement—seriously emboldened when the incumbent decided to postpone elections originally slated for Valentine’s Day.
Ostensibly, the postponement was a measure taken to beat back Boko Haram strongholds so affected locals could vote. Though, it was interpreted by the movement as a demonstration of fear and an acknowledgement of the need for PDP to revisit the drawing board.
On the surface, significant military victories against Boko Haram during the period slated for reclaiming territories (along with neighbouring military forces) were ironically underscored with the “Why so forceful now?” question.
The Nigeria-Decides hashtag, which has come to symbolise her spotlight in 2015, said just what it meant: Nigerians truly decided. Despite not knowing full details of how the new government plans to handle some of the critical issues, the risk of change seemed a better option than the prospects of continuity.
Nigerians hope Buhari will use his iron first on Boko Haram and corruption (even among some of his own bedmates), but also want him to be more gentle with every day civilians, than he was as a military leader in the early 80s.
Putting aside the candidates, or equally strong (yet immaterial) arguments about which region’s turn it was to rule, the real victory went to the majority of voters.
This election marked a transition from an old era dominated by mass, unabashed rigging and resulting voter apathy. In Gallow’s humour, Nigerians often joked about having the world’s fastest election result reporting times, since conclusions were made well before Election Day. Having also organised the 2011 election, Professor Jega, Nigeria’s election commission leader, takes much credit for this changing trend.
The past meets the future In the 2011 race Nigerians across different parts of the country, argued it was God’s will for Jonathan to led Nigeria in 2011. What else would explain the “goodluck” he enjoyed within 53 months?
Daniel Akinmade Emejulu holds a Bachelor of Laws degree from the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London and a Master of Laws degree from Duke University, where he wrote his thesis on Nigeria. He is a qualified lawyer in Nigeria and author of The Great Oversight. The views expressed are his own.
