WHEN politicians are cocksure that they are holding the cards – that they are in control of a situation, that advantage lies firmly on their side, that they are unstoppable – they tend to test their capability to the limit, only to be brought down to earth with a heavy thud.
This is what has happened to the MDC Renewal Team in just a space of days following the expulsion of their 21 MPs – the only card they held – from Parliament for crossing the floor from the main opposition MDC-T to form their own party.
Suddenly, they are fighting for sheer survival. They could now be spending most of their time in court than campaigning because for now – if not forever – they have no political leverage to talk about.
The MDC-T has reiterated that it will stick by its congress resolution not to participate in elections – including the 14 by-elections due to be held soon to replace the MDC Renewal Team MPs – until all stated electoral reforms have been implemented. “Our position is clear. We have a congress resolution and we do not vacillate or blow hot and cold. We believe in sticking to principle,” said MDC-T spokesperson Obert Gutu. They are now talking the language of someone holding the cards.
Only last week, Mozambican football side Ferroviario Maputo demonstrated the dangers of celebrating for too long – after their opponents scored a last-minute equaliser from the kick-off while the goalkeeper was out of position.
The MDC-T has the critical mass of support that no other opposition party has. But there is never a perfect time to do something. Life does not work like that. Even when you holds the cards, you could monumentally and dramatically lose if you become absorbed in over-celebrating that advantage to the exclusion of everything else.
You don’t serve resolutions, but resolutions serve you. Resolutions are not cast in stone. It’s now changed circumstances or particular circumstances. This calls for readjustment.
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The late South African liberation icon Nelson Mandela used violence as a tactic, not a principle, because of the unyielding nature of the apartheid regime.
There is no contradiction – a combination of statements, ideas, or features which are opposed to one another; but there is contradistinction — distinction made by contrasting the different merits of two scenarios and making them complement each other. This is not mere semantics or word play.
In my book, the most useful critique about the MDC-T’s stance was from “Kufandada” who wrote on NewsDay Online: “The decision to recall MPs was correct, but it’s a poor decision not to participate (in the by-elections). This was an opportunity to check how (rigging) works. Why surrender ground to Zanu PF? Why are they filling the seven (Proportional Representation) seats? Why don’t they pull out all their MPs altogether?”
There is no shame or embarrassment in losing some of the seats because voters are as much aware of the rigging chicanery the regime is capable of. So, they won’t solely blame you for any loss. They have been cheated as much as you.
Learn from the formidable Margaret Dongo. She took on the whole Zanu PF machinery single-handedly and head-on as an independent and won after a court-ordered recount overturned the rigged first count in 1995.
The case revealed serious defects in the electoral roll, including the registration of many non-resident voters, suggesting that at least 41% of the names on the roll were inaccurate, and the court judgment invalidated the election.
For the past 15 years, the urban seats now at stake have been in opposition hands at great cost to voters’ lives and limbs, not to mention destroyed property. So, their supporters will not take it kindly if they suddenly wake up to find the seats in the hands of their tormentors.
People know that their vote hasn’t translated into substantive and sustained political gains, but it hasn’t counted for nothing. It has given them a sense of pride and self-assertion, and they are very much aware that politics is an incremental game; they don’t expect instant success.
Elections have been the only time and opportunity the long- oppressed people have been able to hit back strongly and emphatically at the regime – and the regime has felt sharply the shame of losing particularly in the capital Harare, the seat of government itself, and the second-largest city Bulawayo, not to mention the rest of the cities. The message from the urbanites has been loud and clear that the regime is not wanted anymore.
So, it would be politically shattering if their only voice were to be taken away just like that. People would feel betrayed. They will be beyond angry – with the MDC-T, of course.
We know that outside Parliament, the opposition has hardly any voice. The selective application of the Public Order and Security Act, among other restrictive and repressive laws, ensures that anti-government demonstrations are not sanctioned.
The partisan police routinely ban opposition political rallies. The public media is off-limits to dissenting views as it has been reduced to a grovelling, shameless, lying mouthpiece of the ruling class.
Yes, we know that Zanu PF has a two-thirds majority in Parliament giving them a blank cheque to do as they please, but the opposition still needs the maximum possible presence in Parliament.
But the scandalous folly of insisting on a boycott is that isn’t it plain for all to see that Zanu PF is currently at its weakest and most vulnerable, thus, this is the best time to take it on? Zanu PF has never been so divided.
It has been split right down the middle between the “Gamatox” faction led by former Vice-President Joice Mujuru, and the “Weevils”, fronted by First Lady Grace Mugabe and her sidekick Oppah Muchinguri.
Zanu PF is at its most distracted. The Gamatox are simmering and seething while the Weevils are gloating over their triumph. The continuing purge of the Gamatox could backfire.
If the MDC-T participates in the by-elections, there is no doubt that those traditionally pro-Zanu PF voters who are being victimised countrywide for being perceived or real Mujuru supporters would vote for the MDC-T in a backlash. These people don’t have to be told what to do.
The Gamatox have no choice, but to hit back. They are not yet done. Mujuru has 50% support in Zanu PF at the very least. At the most, it could be as high as 90% going by the fact that she had secured 90% of the provincial chairpersons ahead of the farcical Zanu PF congress which was manipulated to overturn her overwhelming majority.
So, where else on earth can these disgruntled Zanu PF supporters transfer their allegiance – temporary and expedient as it might be — except to the MDC-T, the bitterest and fiercest political foe of Zanu PF? My enemy’s enemy is my friend.
But it seems the MDC-T is determined not to give the Gamatox that chance to hit back with a vengeance and harvest from that. Such golden opportunities don’t arise often in politics. The Gamatox vote is there for the taking – isn’t that plain to see? The Gamatox have the power to make or break, reducing the chances of rigging prevailing. In other words, Zanu PF could have unwittingly donated votes to the MDC-T.
Now if the MDC-T does not see this clear, massive advantage that has come their way – for free– and use it to strengthen and consolidate their position, what else are they failing to see? It makes one wonder – real wonder.
