Zim dollar return too ghastly to contemplate

Never say never,especially with Zanu PF in charge.

Guest Column Vince Musewe

There are rumours abound of the imminent return of the Zimbabwe dollar.

As far as I am concerned, that will surely sound the death knell for the Zimbabwean economy as we know it.

But, as I always say, never say never, especially when you have a desperate government that does not have wide choices.

I want to look at three scenarios: The political solution scenario, the Chinese scenario and the Zim dollar scenario.

It is clear that Zanu PF has not earned politically legitimacy from the West and the only way that this can be earned is through a political solution that acknowledges that the July 31 elections were not free and fair and did not reflect the will of the majority of Zimbabweans.

This would mean that all the reforms as stipulated in the Global Political Agreement must be implemented and fresh elections held as soon as possible.

Now that is as good as asking Zanu PF to admit that indeed they rigged the elections and we all know that is not about to happen.

Despite that, this is the only way the Zimbabwe can earn legitimacy and this would lead to normalisation of international relationships leading to economic recovery in the medium term. This is the hardest but the best solution for Zimbabwe.

We then have the Chinese scenario.

Here Zimbabwe mortgages its resources to the Chinese and receives cash from China.

The problem here is that, firstly, that nullifies indigenisation, but, more important, it will result in us selling our national resources for a song.

We must remember that Zimbabwe does not even know the value of the mineral resources it has and in desperation, we are most likely to undervalue what we have.

The Chinese would, of course, take full advantage of this situation, pay us as little as possible and effectively colonise Zimbabwe in the process.

The quantum of funds that can be raised through this solution is very minimal and cannot sustain our needs in the medium term.

The Zim dollar scenario would sees us introducing the Zim dollar.

The problem with this is obvious: There is no confidence that this government can manage its own currency as was the case up to 2008.

Added to this is the emotional baggage that comes with it due to the traumatic experience of Zimbabweans in 2008.

The introduction of the Zimbabwe dollar would wipe out imports, especially food from the shops, as we are importing an estimated 70% of our needs.

There is also no guarantee that it would keep its value and we would be effectively bringing back hyperinflation and would, therefore, wipe out any wealth accumulated since 2009.

It will not revive industry or create new jobs.

This option will reverse any gains that we might have made as a country since 2009 and will actually accelerate poverty.

This Zim dollar option is just too ghastly to contemplate and if any of our politicians are even considering it, they should be arrested.

We are in a good space I think, we all know that the only sustainable solution is a political one. Everything else will be short term and expedient.

The only question is: How long it will take for Zanu PF to realise that without a political solution, they are manufacturing their own demise?
Maybe that’s not a bad thing either?

44 Responses to Zim dollar return too ghastly to contemplate

  1. spunk nunk December 5, 2013 at 7:04 am #

    Zimdollar without exporting,but with zanu pf anything is possible coz mazanu pf ndokuti madofo

    • Changlong11 December 5, 2013 at 10:11 am #

      This is a dangerous HOAX that creates pandemonium in the financial services sector resultantly some institutions and organisations can become insolvent.
      Mr Vince Musewe is showcasing interllectual weakness and ignorance by creating a ridiculous contemplation on the return of the Zim dollar.
      Mr Vince Misewe should be however be informed on a long run Zimbabwe should inevitably resort to use of its own currency that is backed with some collateral security of course because we are a sovereign economy.

      • Rudadiso December 5, 2013 at 2:40 pm #

        Changlong why do you see danger everywhere? This is an academic discussion centered around three possible scenarios. Wherein lies the danger?

      • Zimboforlife December 5, 2013 at 6:14 pm #

        Chanlong, i want to agree with u on the need to reintroduce our local currency. This will be complementedby a well managed foreign currency regime. The liquidity crisis is a result of several factors, chief among them, widening current account signifying huge appetite for imports, some of which are luxaries we can afford to do without consideriing the crisis that is developing. The other cause being poor export performance which is a result of uncompepetive production processes to enable exports and low international commodity prices.

        So, the introduction of the Zim dollar complemented by the necessary reforms to restrore confidence in the currency, will rationalise our appetitte for exports.

        As it is, the easy access to the US$ means noone will ever think of producing anything locally considering the cost of production, hence, they will resort to import even the basic of stuffs due to the low business risk.

        This a topic that needs a lot of space and time. Adios, interlectuals

        • Mavande December 6, 2013 at 10:08 am #

          You left out the legacy of corruption in Zim. That has to be tackled & eradicated first, with full commitment for any meaningful progress to occur. All your suggestions will fail if the high levels of vice remain as any gains will be immediately reversed , just like fetching water from a well using a leaking bucket.

  2. comrade taf December 5, 2013 at 7:33 am #

    Zim dollar means the falling of the defending champion. It will destabilize the economy again, mateacher ndivo vanotanga kumama nayo nhamo, nomore jobs in Zim for the next 5 years. ZANU PF needs to work on their policies especially 51/49. The foreign investor will only come if the environment is very conducive for investment not kuti todzosa Zim dollar for what, get lost zanu pf!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • mwana wevhu December 6, 2013 at 4:51 am #

      zimdollar was destabilized by MDC with the help of USA government & the EU .it came under unprecedented siege from those three political forces.
      using the Us$ has brought a false sense of economic stability. as a country we need to stand on our own feet so that we measure our own strength.

  3. blowhole December 5, 2013 at 8:04 am #

    I like the part that ‘any politician considering the return of the zim dollar must be arrested’. That’s a joke of the year. Actually they shud be sentenced to death.

  4. Sergeant December 5, 2013 at 8:10 am #

    Situpeti talking of rumours. You want to cause alarm and panic chete tibvire apa

  5. samaita December 5, 2013 at 8:15 am #

    ichokwadi wena nyaya iripo ndeye politics chete chete

  6. Peter Mugabe December 5, 2013 at 8:34 am #

    That’s what happens when you entrust a Malawian man to rule Zimbabwe. He doesn’t care about Zimbabwe.

  7. SIR Lancelot December 5, 2013 at 8:48 am #

    the king’s expression was established long ago yet a key knight or two are busy dotting on the crossings with motive of eventually casing their own nuts into this equation by deliberately gridlocking it.
    its not about the colour of money. its the international relations underneath a loose nut.

  8. maita December 5, 2013 at 8:57 am #

    Obstinacy in ZanuPf is too big. As we speak they stash their USD somehwre and then introduce the ZImdollar and this is reality. Do you really think there was lack in ZanuPf politicians’s homes those turbulent year of 2007/2008, no they lived large, bult mansions and imported building materials as others suffred in queues. But because we are a docile lot we are going to have the zimdollar and just listen as the Herald shouts its voice hoarse supporting the zimdollar and songs coined in that respect then you know end time now. Our short lived joy is about to come to an end. Unfortunately dependants who vote for zanupf will blame us for not providing them with food yet it was their vote which sold us to these arrogant people. Those youths who got 10 usd to vote spend it that day on zed now are hitting the sreet fighting to sell phone chrages and pouches at every street corner see them fight for that space wearing their party regalia and you can’t help but laugh. Indegenise, empower, develop and employ will be emblazoned on their backs.

  9. charakupa mwenewazvo December 5, 2013 at 8:59 am #

    Zim dollar can work miracles if and only if we export the mineral ZANU PF which is the only exportable resource we have. And i am pretty sure Vince knows the actual value of this mineral.

  10. Mutape- rabbie December 5, 2013 at 9:00 am #

    comrade taf maticha akushaishirei anopinde pari panya yako ye zim dollar. not only teachers will be affected but everyone.your hatred of teachers suggest kuti uri dofo

  11. ZIM December 5, 2013 at 9:02 am #

    knowing how mad zanu is, anything is possible, especially that it has 13million docile, unthinking people under it anything crazy can come up. just listen to the deliberations which will be on during the coming conference and the many cheers that will be there and how the party media will applaude its success when nothing has come out of it. when i look at how people cheer at the rallies even when their leader has said nothing or said rubbish makes me make such comments. its so sad and a shame.

  12. Ethan Hawke December 5, 2013 at 9:17 am #

    You can’t have the best of everything, accept that with the $US there will be a liquidity crisis caused by lack of confidence, and the Zim dollar will bring hyperinflation, we better off with the statud quo, Less $US is better that abundant worthless ZW$

  13. US Dhora December 5, 2013 at 9:22 am #

    I’ve heard of this before & truly speaking, that is the only plan on the ground which they think will work. They cant go to our foreign ditractors & beg for money, so the only option left is to print more, the same way they printed more ballot papers to win the election. What they dont know is that the economy is not run the same way as an election. There is no opposition to rig against it. But to us fellow Zimbabweans, its very difficult for someone to understand that their ideas dont work until they realise it on their own. Even if we offer them much help, they wont accept it, because they still have ideas. When they run out of those ideas, you will see them running back to you for help. For now just sit back & watch.

  14. dobbs one-four December 5, 2013 at 10:24 am #

    @taf. Teachers are just as good as other Zimbabweans who work and reside in Zimbabwe. In fact the majority of them can manage whatever little resources at their disposal. They did not vote for the Zim dollar as most of them were posted outside their constituencies during the elections. Havanei nenyaya iyi. Be informed blaz.

  15. wasu December 5, 2013 at 11:26 am #

    true that reporter…….tinomama zvekare four and half years to go

  16. Ladza December 5, 2013 at 1:21 pm #

    Some things never change,some people never learn.

  17. real man December 5, 2013 at 1:56 pm #

    no man. yuh fi decide lik ah tinking people and not evil people. Big up to everybody sayin nuh to dis.

  18. zvokwadi December 5, 2013 at 2:21 pm #

    Let the gullible chinese prop up zanu pf through those useless deals which we will disown in a new zimbabwe. We will then invite proper businessmen from the west.

  19. masvukupete December 5, 2013 at 2:28 pm #

    If only the ZPF lot could use half the brain they use during election time, the economy will be ticking away now. Have been reading Nathaniel Manheru and Reason Wafawarova (Herald) recently. Very interesting reading indeed. Only before elections they were calling names to those with vision enough of critisizing indegenistaion as advocated by ZPF yet today they are busy denigrating it. Isusu ana masvukupete said it before it was implemented that it is not the best model (as presented) for our country at present moment. If they are in the corridors of power did they not see it and if thats the best calibres of people in ZPF then they can never see risks before they occur. The only risk they can analyse to perfection is how to deal with power struggles and election as if that is an end in itself. I encourage people to read Nathaniel of now and compare that to his articles before the elections. We are truly being led by people who do not know anything else apart from being in power. If the country’s wealth was determined by election mechanisms and election “winning” then Zimbabwe will be flowing milk and honey for sure. Their limitations are kutonga zvimwe zvese izvi that have real practical value (leading, finance, engineering, manufacturing, management, economics, diplomacy) madofo chaiwo. Chavo kugona kutuka vamwe, apapo hapana anovakunda.

  20. Rudadiso December 5, 2013 at 2:52 pm #

    Vince doesn’t seem to be aware of the fact that the mortgaging of resources to the Chinese started some time ago. We are a colnised people. At the airport we now get shunted to the side and are only served after the Chinese. They also dominate diamond mining as Anjin.

  21. reason December 5, 2013 at 4:17 pm #

    This is one of a stupid and unfounded stories carried by this paper. The opinion of the author is based on hallucinations and hatred for ZPF. There are no facts and ITS A TALE TOLD BY AN IDIOT FULL OF SOUND AND FURY BUT SIGNIFYING NOTHING.

    • matombo December 5, 2013 at 9:33 pm #

      I think the author is inviting for an academic debate here. He has put his points across and its up to you to present your points for or against the points raised by the author. I think this article generates a good debate. Ngatisangotukana kana tisina kunzwisisa zviri kudiwa na author

  22. Musona December 5, 2013 at 4:37 pm #

    One of the worst things to happen to this country is the signing of the so-called Global Political Agreement (GPA) between ZanuPF and the MDCs. We had civilian parties signing an agreement with a military dictatorship. It’s absolutely insane for the MDCs or any other civilian party for that matter to think they can unseat a military dictatorship in an election. The good thing is that the military in ZanuPF were very open in saying MDCs would not be allowed to govern but the MDCs ignored this – and up to now the MDCs and other civilian parties ignore this warning. There is no difference between the military regime in Madagascar and the illegitimate government in Zimbabwe the only difference is that in Madagascar they recognise that they are dealing with a military dictatorship but in Zimbabwe the civilian parties are in denial. This GPA only changed one thing only – the endorsement of a Constitution which looks like a ZanuPF manifesto.

  23. Musona December 5, 2013 at 4:39 pm #

    There’s no way Z*nuPF will bring back the Z*m dollar. They are embarra*sed by the use of US dollars and other foreign currencies but they can do nothing about it. The country is going to lurch from one crisis to the other until 2018 when we have a repeat of the mock election which will undoubtedly be “won” by Zan*PF.

  24. Bookish Economists December 5, 2013 at 5:38 pm #

    Mr Mugabe remainds me of Thabo Mbeki and his late minister of health Dr Manto Shabalala Msimanga. the two were against the world that HIV doesnt cause AIDS. they were saying if you eat beetroot and etc , instead of ARVs you will be ok.They were defying logic and all the books and researches. Here comes Mugabe who says no to Economics of dmd,price and supply. he calls it bookish ecomonics.He says if you indigenise, the economy will be ok. indignesation means selling our companies to foreigners for a song. here is the list of companies that are now foreign owned coz of indignastion. 1) Kingdom gone to AfriAsia.2)Premier Banking Corparation gone to Nigeria 3) Check the share holding of the former Zanu pf bank called FBC. is foreign owned. Tetrad is looking for a foreign Suitor. Cairns is looking for a foreign investor.Since this chorus of indigenisation,all companies are looking for foreign capital.

  25. person December 5, 2013 at 6:04 pm #

    I liked ’13 million docile minds’that is a true character of us Zimbabweans tinonyannya kukwata dai taititimuka kana iwo mapurisa nemasoja acho anoshandiswa kudzvinyirira vanhu akaona povho yaramba anotisapota because navowo there living in the same Zimbabwe….COUP,COUP,COUP MACOMRADES ACHIMWENE NGAVABVE APO…

  26. hapana zvamunondiita December 5, 2013 at 7:33 pm #

    thanx Vince 4 the wel thot article, some idiots seem 2 b living in their own worlds, in August President Tsvangirai told Zimbabwe tht these zanu idiots wl neva rig the economy, 3 months down the line there’s no money in e banks. unles n until zanu pf swallows its pride Zimbabwe’s goin down worse thn it dd in 2008. President Tsvangirai ths tym demand mo cz u hv leverage, once again thnx Vince tht ws spot on

  27. scotv December 5, 2013 at 9:05 pm #

    Hypothetically speaking, if Vince’s dream of the Government of Zimbabwe going on their knees before the British government to beg for ‘fresh’ elections becomes a reality, resulting in a ZANU PF landslide under President Robert Mugabe, does that amount to legitimacy, a political solution or normalizing relations with the West?

    We all know the answer is a big no!

    Some will claim that ZANU PF will never win a fair election, ever. My question is, how is this an intellectual discussion if there is only one desired outcome based on the preference of the opposition and their allies? If MDC T had won the past election, I would have been very unhappy about it but in my state of unhappiness I would have congratulated my friends in the opposition and continued to work towards a bright future for my country that I so love, hoping for a win come 2018. I would not have supported the plot to make the country ungovernable nor put together one doom tale after another.

    The issue is regime change, nothing else. So why pretend to make intellectual arguments?

  28. Abbu December 5, 2013 at 10:10 pm #

    Say whatever u want bt 1 thing for certain zpf isn’t concerned abt national dvepmnt. Their preoccupation is their political survival at any and whatever cost. Remember D Mutasa once said its better to remain w our own pple the rest havana basa chero vakafa when he was responding to qstns abt food shortage and partisan distribution of fud. Its not surprising they silently declared war on unarmed citizens when they lost elections in 2008. Also consider kuti they’re tacitly promoting non payment of wages to junior workers asi machef achitozvipa huge loans zvakatangira kuZisco kukazotevera NRZ, AirZim and now zvatekeshera bt they’re not doing anything

  29. Musona December 5, 2013 at 11:06 pm #

    @scotv – ZanuPF rigged the July 31 mock election. The outcome was known long before 31 July 2013. When Mugabe held a press conference a day before at State House he had already been informed of the outcome. It is very patronising to say ZanuPF won by a landslide. In a free and fair election there’s no way ZanuPF would get over 5% after having impoverished everyone. Why would any sensible voters rush to vote for a party which engineered a world record rate of inflation? There are only two possible scenarios here – either the voters are very deaf and dumb or the election was rigged. Take your pick.
    You talk of “intellectual discussion” – there can be no “intellectual discussion” when the other party cheats in elections. What is “intellectual” about rigging elections? What sort of election is it where the Voters Roll was not available to the other contestants? Up to this day the other parties have not seen the Voters Roll and we have not seen the report on the election. You want people to accept to be governed by a party which the majority did not vote for?

  30. Musona December 5, 2013 at 11:08 pm #

    A rigged election will remain a rigged election until a fair one is held not by trying to force people to accept a monumental fraud.

  31. george bachinche December 6, 2013 at 1:47 am #

    Most of the comments here evince ignorance about currencies.
    Rather than tell you, I direct you to read why Southern Rhodesia introduced its own currency when it could have easily
    used the British currency.
    When you understand this, you will then be able to see the weakness in using the US dollar- an international currency.
    Because of its value, it can readily be spirited away by all. Government or RBZ can’t make monetary policies. The
    prices of goods and services will be determined by the external value of the US dollars.

    • masvukupete December 6, 2013 at 11:11 am #

      Yes that is extremely true Bachinche, however the use of one’s own currency needs discipline. We destroyed our own currency by thinking that money is the paper that it is printed on (very basic economics although our CEO has a degree in economics). Money is actually represents barter trade (can be used to represent barter trade in the past, present or future). If u do not have products (or services) to trade then you do not have money (wealth). Wealth is the ability and potential to make products (or services) that meet customer needs. The more the number of people who requires your products the wealthier you are (even if they pay 1 cent each per day, economies of scale). If you can make consumer goods then you are at the high end of the chain. If you make basic commodities (minerals) then you at the low end of the food chain (that is less profit per value of product). If the need for this discipline acknowledged then obviously it is best to use your own currency. The government (and RBZ)’s role to regulate the supply of the money in recognition that it should be supported by real products (forget about gold, it was used when people didnt understand the real value of money and the basis of money keeps mutating overtime because of social systems and contracts prevailing at the time). All countries that have been successful has been hinged on the production of finished consumer goods despite the presence or absence within their boarders of resources to make the goods. In Zimbabwe we have within our shores to make many many products, but we are working on ways to mortgage raw minerals that are still embedded in the ground. The first strategy would be to reduce the civil servant bill and channel the funds saved to productive sectors (agricultural reforms, organisation and management, not this non strategic inputs schemes with no management). This will reduce our imports. The money that is subsequently saved from food production should then go to food processing and other consumer products. Compared to most foods around the world, we have some of the best tasting food (products) in the world and that is a very huge competitive advantage (Oros vs Mazoe Orange in South Africa), Colcom products are much much better than any other products the world over. These are some of our competetive advantages among others that we need to promote and market to make money for Zimbabwe

      By using the basics of management we can come up with a lot of solutions to our problems. It is no rocket science.

      • masvukupete December 6, 2013 at 11:15 am #

        Further more the USA and European economies are in “trouble” due to this indiscipline of disregarding the concept of what money is. However their problems, although they call them a disaster, are not in anyway close to what we called “no crisis” between 1995 to present. We are in deeper S**T than Greece and others.

  32. chaporonga December 6, 2013 at 9:02 am #

    hanzi anoproposer the return of the dollar should be arrested.kikikikikiki

  33. bless December 6, 2013 at 9:33 am #

    ndo mafunny funny ka aya…..

  34. madzimbo December 6, 2013 at 9:56 am #

    dear sir you use the name reason but i truly wonder if you are capable of doing so? We are all living in the same country we all went through 2007/2008,we all know bout how our once beautiful and respected country has now become a dustbin where all substandard asian products are dumped.between september and october this year 700,reported companies closed,what more those that closed in previous years? The issue here is not weather or not the article is true,but what will the repurcusions be if the government does introduce zim dollar back on the market.so use a bit of reason and see whats realy going on around u

  35. grady December 6, 2013 at 10:05 am #

    ngavataure zvavanoda, we want our bonus ari ma USD, makutijairira manje

  36. tray December 6, 2013 at 10:08 am #

    zim dollar ndizvo

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