The first 100 days of any new administration are widely considered as indicative of the prospects of success or failure of that administration during its entire term.
Financial Sector Spotlight with Omen Muza Though the new government will argue that its success cannot be measured adequately in just 100 days, when in fact it has over 1 800 days in which to turn things around, within three months we are likely to have a fair idea of where we are going or not going. Over the past few weeks, we have heard about the “what” of the country’s development; it’s the “how” part that must now be addressed.
As we wait for the process to be put into motion with the announcement of Cabinet, let’s consider some of the issues that will have to be dealt with during this 100-day period. l Restoration of market confidence: Probably the most important act government will have to perform is to rebuild confidence and stabilise the financial markets through appropriate pronouncements.
This will involve re-establishing policy visibility around a wide range of issues such as currency reforms, flexibility of indigenisation and economic empowerment, dealing with stagnating growth and the widening current account deficit.
Cabinet composition: Putting together Cabinet will in itself be one of the new government’s first acts of confidence building. Qualitatively and quantitatively, Cabinet’s dimensions will have a major bearing on economic policy and thereby growth prospects. We have previously had “Cabinets of dead wood” and “War Cabinets,” what will this one be?
Dispersing feelings of doubt and despondency: Despite the political landslide victory, a nationwide celebratory mood hasn’t exactly engulfed the nation outside party realms because the people are keenly aware of the bigger economic battle that lies ahead. Instead there has been an unspoken sense of doubt and apprehension, which government will have to deal with in order to mobilise public sentiment around key national goals.
Civil service demands: Having suffered considerably due to the paucity of the government’s financial resources before, during and after the government of national unity, civil servants are already calling on the new government to own up to its pre-election promises and address their plight sooner rather than later. Agricultural financing/support: The first real financial challenge or perhaps opportunity to be faced by government in the near-term is the financing of the summer cropping season which commences in September. With State revenues having recently been dwindling due to pre-election growth slowdown, the government faces immediate spending pressures attributable to agricultural input requirement so it must hit the ground running. However, given the parlous state of government finances, a big question mark hangs over the source of money for such expenditure.
2014 National Budget: Given the declining growth prospects over the past two years and the uninspiring performance of government revenues, the 2014 National Budget, whose presentation falls within government’s first 100 days, will not only be the sum total of government’s revenue and expenditure aspirations, but is also expected to lay down the foundation of its quest to re-energise a faltering growth trajectory. Diplomatic engagement: One of Government’s key tasks within its first 100-day period is to chart a viable diplomatic course for the country because diplomatic relations are a precursor of economic engagement at both bilateral and multilateral levels.
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The EU and US have rejected the Zimbabwean poll outcome on the basis of a flawed process, so the diplomatic terrain looks quite treacherous.
The new government will, therefore, have to muster all its diplomatic might in order to manoeuvre this new landscape, as restoration of diplomatic relations is likely to see the easing and eventual removal of sanctions, paving the way for better access to foreign direct investment and lines of credit. Engagement with domestic partners will also be critical.
Debt Burden: Without resolution of the country’s $10,7 billion debt burden, we will continue to grope in the dark — curtailing the country’s access to much need foreign capital and lines of credit. Both internal and external stakeholders are, therefore, expecting bold signals within the next 100 days on how this millstone will be cast off our collective shoulders.
What are your own expectations from the new government within its first 100 days?
