AN online poll survey conducted by shadowy Facebook character Baba Jukwa, has predicted an overwhelming 85% election victory for MDC-T leader Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai.
REPORT BY TAPIWA ZIVIRA/MOSES MATENGA
By yesterday afternoon over 4 000 people had participated in the survey posted on his Facebook wall on Tuesday night.
Using an online survey application, Easypolls.net, Baba Jukwa asked participants, “Who is going to win the coming Zimbabwean elections?”
Zimbabwe could hold harmonised elections this month-end.
Only 10% of the respondents named Tsvangirai’s main rival and Zanu PF leader President Robert Mugabe as the possible winner, giving Tsvangirai a wide margin of 75%.
In the survey, MDC leader Welshman Ncube garnered 3% of the vote while Zapu leader Dumiso Dabengwa and little known Zimbabwe Development Party’s Kisinoti Mukwazhi got a percentage point each.
With over 200 000 Facebook “likes” in just three months, Baba Jukwa — who claims to be a disgruntled high-ranking Zanu PF official –has gained popularity for being the first to expose top party secrets and exposing the decay in the 50-year-old former ruling party.
The page unravels alleged covert operations of the Central Intelligence Organisation, exposing the goings-on in Zanu PF and warns people who were reportedly on the party’s “hit list”.
Claiming he is a “concerned father, fighting nepotism and directly linking the community with their leaders, government, MPs and ministers”, Baba Jukwa gained credibility after posting predictions about events that later happened.
The shadowy character recently foretold the death of outspoken Zanu PF Guruve South MP Edward Chindori-Chininga. He died a fortnight ago in a mysterious car accident a few days after a parliamentary committee he chaired had produced a damning report about alleged shady deals in the diamond-mining sector.
While there was no clear evidence that Baba Jukwa’s message to Chindori-Chininga was accurate, the coincidence raised eyebrows and elevated the page as a credible source of Zanu PF inside information.
Baba Jukwa’s survey joins a long list of others that have predicted varying results.
Contacted for comment Zanu PF’s Chris Mutsvangwa said he would not “baptise Baba Jukwa’s nonsense with a response”.
“I don’t give credibility to that nonsense. I have no comment on that,” he said.
MDC-T spokesperson Douglas Mwonzora said Baba Jukwa’s prediction was close to that of the 90% mark predicted by the party and, therefore, was credible.
“The prediction is almost accurate. We have done our own (survey) as a party and we found out that we will win by 90% so by saying that, Baba Jukwa is almost there. It will be a whitewash,” Mwonzora said.
MDC deputy spokesperson Kurauone Chihwai said although he was certain Baba Jukwa’s previous predictions had come to pass, he had misfired on this one.
“Baba Jukwa got it wrong. The results of his research are both meaningless and misleading. The MDC will shock Mugabe, Tsvangirai and Baba Jukwa who are all guided by history and we are not taking Baba Jukwa seriously on his or her predictions. His/her research will not affect our search for State House keys,” Chihwai said.
A United States-based non-governmental organisation, Freedom House, last year, predicted a possible Zanu PF victory and showed waning support for the MDC-T.
According to the survey, MDC-T support dropped from 38% to 20% in 2010 and 2012 respectively in about 18 months.
In contrast, Zanu PF was said to have experienced a dramatic recovery from 17% to 31% during the same period.
A May 2013 report, Zimbabwe: Election Scenarios, produced by the International Crisis Group predicted a tightly contested election that would see Zimbabwe having another government of national unity as there likely would be no clear winner.
In April, pressure group Zvakwana/Sokwanele predicted yet another Zanu PF victory.
According to the report entitled Miracle Votes — An analysis of the March 2013 Referendum, the high voter turnout at the referendum “could be attributed to the coercive capacities of the political parties, especially Zanu PF.”
Sokwanele said the voting pattern in the referendum showed a possible Zanu PF victory.