Baba Jukwa tips Tsvangirai

AN online poll survey conducted by shadowy Facebook character Baba Jukwa, has predicted an overwhelming 85% election victory for MDC-T leader Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai.

REPORT BY TAPIWA ZIVIRA/MOSES MATENGA

By yesterday afternoon over 4 000 people had participated in the survey posted on his Facebook wall on Tuesday night.

A snapshot of the online poll. For the full poll click here

A snapshot of the online poll. For the full poll click here

Using an online survey application, Easypolls.net, Baba Jukwa asked participants, “Who is going to win the coming Zimbabwean elections?”

Zimbabwe could hold harmonised elections this month-end.

Only 10% of the respondents named Tsvangirai’s main rival and Zanu PF leader President Robert Mugabe as the possible winner, giving Tsvangirai a wide margin of 75%.

In the survey, MDC leader Welshman Ncube garnered 3% of the vote while Zapu leader Dumiso Dabengwa and little known Zimbabwe Development Party’s Kisinoti Mukwazhi got a percentage point each.

With over 200 000 Facebook “likes” in just three months, Baba Jukwa — who claims to be a disgruntled high-ranking Zanu PF official –has gained popularity for being the first to expose top party secrets and exposing the decay in the 50-year-old former ruling party.

The page unravels alleged covert operations of the Central Intelligence Organisation, exposing the goings-on in Zanu PF and warns people who were reportedly on the party’s “hit list”.

Claiming he is a “concerned father, fighting nepotism and directly linking the community with their leaders, government, MPs and ministers”, Baba Jukwa gained credibility after posting predictions about events that later happened.

The shadowy character recently foretold the death of outspoken Zanu PF Guruve South MP Edward Chindori-Chininga. He died a fortnight ago in a mysterious car accident a few days after a parliamentary committee he chaired had produced a damning report about alleged shady deals in the diamond-mining sector.
While there was no clear evidence that Baba Jukwa’s message to Chindori-Chininga was accurate, the coincidence raised eyebrows and elevated the page as a credible source of Zanu PF inside information.

Baba Jukwa’s survey joins a long list of others that have predicted varying results.

Contacted for comment Zanu PF’s Chris Mutsvangwa said he would not “baptise Baba Jukwa’s nonsense with a response”.

“I don’t give credibility to that nonsense. I have no comment on that,” he said.

MDC-T spokesperson Douglas Mwonzora said Baba Jukwa’s prediction was close to that of the 90% mark predicted by the party and, therefore, was credible.

“The prediction is almost accurate. We have done our own (survey) as a party and we found out that we will win by 90% so by saying that, Baba Jukwa is almost there. It will be a whitewash,” Mwonzora said.

MDC deputy spokesperson Kurauone Chihwai said although he was certain Baba Jukwa’s previous predictions had come to pass, he had misfired on this one.

“Baba Jukwa got it wrong. The results of his research are both meaningless and misleading. The MDC will shock Mugabe, Tsvangirai and Baba Jukwa who are all guided by history and we are not taking Baba Jukwa seriously on his or her predictions. His/her research will not affect our search for State House keys,” Chihwai said.

A United States-based non-governmental organisation, Freedom House, last year, predicted a possible Zanu PF victory and showed waning support for the MDC-T.

According to the survey, MDC-T support dropped from 38% to 20% in 2010 and 2012 respectively in about 18 months.

In contrast, Zanu PF was said to have experienced a dramatic recovery from 17% to 31% during the same period.

A May 2013 report, Zimbabwe: Election Scenarios, produced by the International Crisis Group predicted a tightly contested election that would see Zimbabwe having another government of national unity as there likely would be no clear winner.

In April, pressure group Zvakwana/Sokwanele predicted yet another Zanu PF victory.

According to the report entitled Miracle Votes — An analysis of the March 2013 Referendum, the high voter turnout at the referendum “could be attributed to the coercive capacities of the political parties, especially Zanu PF.”

Sokwanele said the voting pattern in the referendum showed a possible Zanu PF victory.

66 Responses to Baba Jukwa tips Tsvangirai

  1. Prim July 4, 2013 at 9:09 am #

    Baba jukwa ndizvo. I checked my name pa myzimvote ndikaona ndakaregistwa Ku hatcliffe yet I’ve never registered. I went ku zec reg centre ku glen view and they confirmed kuti I’m registered. Manje vafema coz it’s going to be Save all the way

    • Kirimu Dhonanzi July 4, 2013 at 12:43 pm #

      I agree with Mr. Jukwa’s poll though I feel that he has chomborised 10% additional votes in favour of Morgan Richard. My own humble poll produced the following results: Morgan Richard (70%); Bob (27%); Welshman (2%); Dumiso (approx. 1%) & Kissnot Mukwazhe (0,016%). (The margin of error is 1%).

  2. sox July 4, 2013 at 9:12 am #

    Ish are you sure these are not referendum results coz MRT is cruising. Kkkk

  3. Edizah July 4, 2013 at 9:14 am #

    And you make this your headline story? Come on Newsday!

  4. Denzel July 4, 2013 at 9:14 am #

    Correct heading is Zimbabwe poll tips a Tsvangirai landslide

  5. inizvangu July 4, 2013 at 9:17 am #

    the title of the article should be “Zviroto zvaBaba Jukwa”.

    First paragraph “Baba Jukwa varidza tsamwa hombe apo vamuka vakaziwa kuti vange vachirota. Muzvorito zvawo vaona vaMugabe, avo vachakunda chaizvo musarudzo richaitwa musi va31 Chikunguru gore rino, vakundwa nasabhuku vekuBuhera tsvangirayi. Muzviroto imomo vanhu vange vavhota mukodzero idzi vachena vakatorerwa pfuma yavange vabira vana veZimbabwe kubudikidza nemadziteteguru avo, vana veZimbabwe awo vari kune nyika dzakapotera Zimbabwe uye vamwe vari kune nyika dzevapembepfumi dzakatemera Zimbabwe zvisungo.

  6. wamaromo July 4, 2013 at 9:32 am #

    When a survey of this nature is done zanupf dismisses it but when its done by Americans and tip ZanuPf they ovewhelmingly accept the poll. Whay Baba Jukwa did was how a poll can be conducted where people express themselves without fear if 85 % say they think Mt will win considering that almost 4000 people responded then why should a survey conduct on 1200 people be considered more than this one. It is a headline story off course. Did that Foundation’s survey become headline stories to this day when it predicted a victory for ZanuPF. Zva Baba Jukwa zviri genuine.

    • reason July 4, 2013 at 10:01 am #

      kikikiki, this is the joke of the year, ka baba jukwa kaya kazozvi chipisa manje, kabuda pachena kuti its the desperate MDC T preparing to cry foul after the ZPF landslide victory. If TSVANGIRAI was going to win, honestly why would he make frantic efforts to postpone the elections? kikikiki, kana duchanana chairo rinotukuudza kuti ZED, yega yega ndiyo yava kutomwiwa semvura ne makwara aya. ahhh nhasi ndaseka vakomana, kana chi daily news kotoiita headline, infact it must have been a typographical error paku nyora maresults e survey yacho, pakati Tsvangirai vaida kuti Mugabe, but munongoziva mabasa e ZED ine 120% ALCOHOL. KIKIKIKIKI!

    • Tsano July 4, 2013 at 10:32 am #

      Its unlikely to be an accurate reflection for the simple fact that it was posted on his site and clearly as a result of this,his supporters will make up the majority of people voting on the poll. It was in no way taken from a representative portion of society. 90% of the people on the page are supporters of the opposition therefore it makes sense that their sympathies would lie there.

  7. Muza Sibanda July 4, 2013 at 9:32 am #

    Editor please be serious for once. That journalism has gone to the dogs. What utter nonsense.

    • Gutter Poet July 4, 2013 at 10:54 am #

      @Muza-Explain why it is nonsense. And how does getting a survey by one of the hottest pages on the internet take journalism to the dogs? You are not going to expain, are you?

  8. kuda July 4, 2013 at 9:37 am #

    Vanhu vanovoter painternet ndevemumatowns and a few in growth points with internet. The majority vari kuUzumba Maramba Pfungwe, Zaka, Bikita, Muzarabani etc right now vari kumagarden kwavo muchaona zvavachaita on 31July ndopamuchadzidza. It will be Zanu PF 95%, MDC-T 4%, Others 1%. Itai henyu zvekutamba thats why Honorable Chris Mutsvangwa refused to comment.

    • Badoo July 4, 2013 at 10:45 am #

      Vanhu vari mutown vakabva kumusha uye ndivo vanoita kuti hama dzavo dziri kumusha dzirarame every month-end nokutumira mari. Tumari twekurima twunopera musi watatorwa kungava kuTobacco auction floor kana GMB.Don’t fool your self.

  9. Mangena July 4, 2013 at 9:46 am #

    Save fo presidency.

  10. fred July 4, 2013 at 9:53 am #

    Most of zpf sympathizers hate dis bajukwa fella and do not ‘like’ him. Therefore ‘ey did not participate.

  11. anonymous July 4, 2013 at 9:53 am #

    It is also important to state the demography. i.e.

    - drawn from the Zimbabwean internate populace
    - who are fans of Baba Jukwa’s page (200,000)
    - who responded to the vote (4000)

    Otherwise it will give MDC some false perception and they will not work as hard.

    Remember there are millions of Zimbabweans, some of which vote under fear of ZANUPF

    These polls really dont do much

  12. rural folk July 4, 2013 at 10:03 am #

    this poll result is biased cause it does not consider rural population who do not have access to the internet who support zanu saka we need a better story we zpf are not amused we know come election we will win

    • Gutter Poet July 4, 2013 at 10:58 am #

      @rural folk- Ecocash is sending money to the darkest cave in the land with their 97% mobile penetration..and most of these folks either have A or O levels, so the rural segment which is not covered is an insignificant part of the sample so it does stand to reason that this survey should be taken seriously.

  13. bvodjo July 4, 2013 at 10:08 am #

    Zanu pf for life. Icho!

  14. jay jay July 4, 2013 at 10:11 am #

    rally behind Save Mazimbabwe no turning back guys

  15. enaldo July 4, 2013 at 10:11 am #

    baba jukwa ndiyani vanoita nezveyi . kana vakabvunzana neshamwari dzavo pafacebook paneimwe nhinduro here kunze kwekuti mdc ichakunda .31 arikusvika baba jukwa vachanyara

  16. Mwana wevhu July 4, 2013 at 10:12 am #

    Poor journalism. To trumpet a research/poll conducted with no known criteria, methodoly or other standard research techniques points out to gutter journalism.

  17. Mafira kureva July 4, 2013 at 10:13 am #

    If there is no rigging surely someone will win. Remember chinokanganwa idemo kuti rakatema………

  18. Doode July 4, 2013 at 10:19 am #

    Joke of the year. BOB haamuzivi uyu Baba Jukwa wenyu.

  19. Sobhuza July 4, 2013 at 10:32 am #

    the Online Survey is not valid firstly because less than 30% of Zimbabweans have access to internet, secondly most of these people are in urban areas which is an MDC stronghold and thirdly people outside the country who are inelligible to vote can participate in an online survey. so the results are not only biased but it also goes to show that Baba Jukwa is not that shrewd

  20. kunjuta marava July 4, 2013 at 10:42 am #

    Survey iyi haina hudzamu ,zvakafanana nekuti mafans aKasukuwere aite survey yavo obviously response yacho inongorerekera kwake .This is utter RUBBISH MR EDITOR itai zviri nani!

  21. Mental Gymnastics July 4, 2013 at 10:45 am #

    A survey in rural areas like Uzumba- Maramba- Pfungwe will reflect a 100 % ZANU[PF] win ! Dreamers conduct research on the social media whilst fundis do a proper empirical research across social strata. Baba Jukwa is now proving to be an IDIOT. Instead of writing hogwash, he should work on upgrading his CV, coz after elections he will find himself redundant ! He is one of the people vachainda pachirongwa chekudunga ma HCT e hypertension Bob and his party vaita rom to victory. There is no credible opposition in Zimbabwe ! Bob will also beat Tsvangie PANTS down !

  22. Mental Gymnastics July 4, 2013 at 10:47 am #

    A survey in rural areas like Uzumba- Maramba- Pfungwe will reflect a 100 % ZANU[PF] win ! Dreamers conduct research on the social media whilst fundis do a proper empirical research across social strata. Baba Jukwa is now proving to be an IDIOT. Instead of writing hogwash, he should work on upgrading his CV, coz after elections he will find himself redundant ! He is one of the people vachainda pachirongwa chekudunga ma HCT e hypertension Bob and his party vaita rom to victory. There is no credible opposition in Zimbabwe ! Bob will also beat Tsvangie PANTS down !!

  23. Trevor July 4, 2013 at 10:48 am #

    Izvi zvinofadza izvi. Although i wasnt part of the survey. My vote will be on Save Morgiza of course. I have checked my name on myzimvote, and i have found it. Come election day kunokwaMutare tinotovavhotera chete Save.

  24. Igwe July 4, 2013 at 10:53 am #

    MDC T will win by 85% as simple as that,very acccurate reporting.Thanx Mr reporter.

  25. chimurenga July 4, 2013 at 10:55 am #

    4000 high school kids who are below 18 and love gossip participated on this poll
    Only idiots read baba jukwa
    Only high school kids waste time on facebook
    How many of the 200k fans of baba jukwa are registered voters
    How many are zimbabweans
    How many of the fb accounts who subscribe to baba jukwa are real
    food for thought

    • Gutter Poet July 4, 2013 at 11:01 am #

      Chimurenga- since you are the sharpest tool in the shed, why dont you give us answers to the “very intelligent” questions ???

  26. dr bvuma July 4, 2013 at 11:00 am #

    munaonawo zvekubaser nazvo imi babajukwa baba jukwa kuita sei

  27. lolest@gmail.com July 4, 2013 at 11:18 am #

    Baba Jukwa is long gone,look at the tone and content,if one is wise will see there is a lot of change,Was Chindori not Baba Jukwa?I think he was ,all what is happening now is to make mockery of the original Baba Jukwa,did anyone read about cjhildren being poisoned at State House,If i were you I would stop reading the nonsense because the worst silly things are to come,I feel sorry for admireres who can not read between the lines that the original Baba Jukwa is gone or dead,shame,people who just read and celebrate stupidity.

  28. Gurwe July 4, 2013 at 11:22 am #

    Kurota kunonakidza, unozoridza tsamwa wamuka! Muchenjere BJ wenyu uyu; ZPF has sophisticated intelligence system so dream on, by the time you wake up it will be back to real life with the usual story. Have your own strategy and don’t rely on these people; pamwe BJ vakatoiswa kuti vakudzimaidzei pfungwa, mark my words tozotaura after July 31!

  29. tomasi tohwi July 4, 2013 at 11:40 am #

    So most of the people who think that they have super brains look down upon rural folk. If you think people from the kumusha setting are dumb, give them their space and you will be in for a rude shock. In fact it should have been made a requirement that all election results be published in the press per ward. How many voters are in Uzumba-Maramba-Pfungwe?

  30. THAMSANQA KHUMALO July 4, 2013 at 11:43 am #

    There are more far people without access to internet or interest to participate in Baba Jukwa’s survey who support ZANU PF. The poll survey is unreliable and does not show what will happen come 31st July 2013. MDC-T has produced the worst councils countrywide ever to manage cities with astronomically high rates imposed on residents and bussiness, astronomical salaries for employees and executives, and absolutely no proper service delivery. On the other hand ZANU PF has endeared more Zimbabweans with its policies, save for the corruption which is the only scourge afflicting the party.

  31. Harurwa July 4, 2013 at 11:46 am #

    The 85% win for Tsvangirai was a poll conducted transparently and not baba Jukwas opinion. It is very valid because so far thats the biggest poll yet to be carried before the election. More than 4000 ppl participated.
    To all haters dont give excuse yekuti kumaruzevha hakuna phone when at this day chembere dzirikuchena nationwide ne mari dze ecocash.
    Hakuna chembere isisagoni kutamba nefon.
    2. The best way to critisize a survey is to carry your own survey and publish results. SIMPLE.
    FOR NOW ITS MORGAN ALL THE WAY..

  32. mgombi 01 July 4, 2013 at 11:49 am #

    try to check the on the populace of the facebook users ,mostly the unemployed , young under 18, and a few employed who have time to waste when they are at work . it is mere day dreaming to say such a very small sample can determine the results of the whole nation. only those who are lazy, vajaira kudya zve mahara kunge honye can vote for morgan tsvangirai we are busy bees in farms ,industries which we all cant have bt develop links and chainages to empower each other completly. we are already lookin forward to a further step in empowerment maelections akahwinwa kare kana wakaramba minda ichapihwa chitsvaga kamusika utore madomasi kumunda kwangu nemutero kucouncil. VaMugabe woye!!!!!!!!!

  33. Reader July 4, 2013 at 11:51 am #

    Intersting. So many ZPF rual and non-rural fans have responded to this internet thread before dismissing internet penetration in Zim. Just do a survey of responses to this article for/against.

  34. Xym July 4, 2013 at 12:36 pm #

    A very valid and authentic poll because it involved Zimbabweans from all walks of life and is Zimbabwean not American.
    Harawa kunozorora.

  35. Grain loan July 4, 2013 at 12:41 pm #

    Why are you hiding such an important story newsday.
    85% of Zimbabweans prefer Tsvangirai as President. Full stop.
    Vese varikuramba itai survey yenyuwo motiudzawo zvamunenge mawana.

  36. Mukandashangu July 4, 2013 at 12:45 pm #

    It was a public poll not baba jukwas opinion. I actual voted. Be serious Mr Editor.

  37. Mthwakazi July 4, 2013 at 12:48 pm #

    True BJ

  38. Tate'sOwn July 4, 2013 at 1:53 pm #

    Ok ok ngatidaiso.according to zanu arguments the voters in this poll r urbanites,given but then in zim the most REGISTERED voters r in harare and followed by manicaland and if somebody is going to have wat, 85% support in such areas even if he is going to have as little as 10% in mash east and west,central already that points to a certain victoty! And remember this of all polls is one in wc the MARGIN OF TERROR is absolutely 0.0000000000001!

  39. Mental Gymnastics July 4, 2013 at 1:57 pm #

    My 9 year old son is on facebook ! This tells a story about some of the respondents. One gray area about the survey is that respondents were never asked whether they are registered voters ! What percentage are these. Did you take into account the aspect of voter apathy ?

  40. Mental Gymnastics July 4, 2013 at 1:59 pm #

    My 9 year old son is on facebook ! This tells a story about some of the respondents. One gray area about the survey is that respondents were never asked whether they are registered voters ! What percentage are these. Did you take into account the aspect of voter apathy ??

  41. Mental Gymnastics July 4, 2013 at 2:13 pm #

    @Tate Kikikikiki ! Did you mean ‘margin of error’ ? I did statistics at university but I did not come across the terminology ‘margin of terror’ ! Anyway, kudzidza hakuperi as ‘margin of terror’ would certainly apply in the Zim context, since we tend to butcher each other in the run-up to elections.

  42. scott July 4, 2013 at 2:39 pm #

    the lowest we have ever sunk in journalism; reporting on a poll by an anonymous facebook page! WOOOOOOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! A PAGE! ON FACEBOOK with 200K likes has conducted a poll on election results and it makes news! WOOOOW!

  43. Ingwe rume mubobobo July 4, 2013 at 2:39 pm #

    Baba jukwa for real.Dai anga ari mapositori ekumasowe ati bobho anohwinha yaitwa headline.hamucomplain wani.Nhasi zviri kwedu ,chisingaperi chinosura

  44. walter July 4, 2013 at 3:29 pm #

    chimurenga has just volunteered to tell us that he/she is an idiot because he reads baba jukwa

  45. wekuMagaba July 4, 2013 at 3:35 pm #

    in as much this isnt a true reflection of what will happen, pa feya feya vanhu havachade Zanu!

  46. Turaimafemo July 4, 2013 at 5:26 pm #

    While its just an online poll there could be a very big margin of error. For example if you have 5 web browsers you can vote five times. You can change from one machine as long it has a different IP address. Thus, one person can vote as many times as they want. However it is just a program to ascertain the mood of voters hence we can’t go on blaming BJ for just putting up the system. Lets not vent our anger on this platform but rather lets go and vote for whoever you want

  47. shatso July 4, 2013 at 9:03 pm #

    zaka yese tovhotera tsvangson, ndopenga here kuvhotera mhondi dze zanu. Every day ndosangana nevanhu vaka rohwa nezanu, vamwe vakagurwa maoko ne pf. Pasi ne mhondi

  48. Prince Far 1 July 5, 2013 at 3:19 pm #

    MDC beat Zanu in 2008 ruzhinji kumisha vadzingwa kuti vasa vhote . Paka sa rigger neku displace vanhu zim will have a watershed election . in future zim needs elections which the result is unpredictable or foregone. Zimbabweans should now wake up to vote for policies kwete kune nyora dzaka fanana nedzavo. Zanu ikaenda kana iyo MDC ichaendao asi zim icharamba iri there. Bob aka wina fair fair kana queen elizabeta acha tuma charlies kumu korokotedza . Kune ava muchavhota Bob kuti nditi makafa mupfungwa its a gross under statement. Kumusha kwenye hakuna zera iro nenzara nyangwe variko you treat them as kids . Ana bob vakauya ne zvibhakera kwete nema policies . any party and leader after 2 terms runs out of steam and becomes opportunistic to try to remain relevant . WAKE UP ZIM AND LETS SHINE AGAIN WE CAN DO IT LETS RETIRE THESE POLISHED THIEVES AND MURDERERS

  49. muteuro naeli July 5, 2013 at 9:53 pm #

    rufaro hatiiteyi mushe handiti madzibaba gabriel vakura ngavaende vanozo….rora. Vana vadiki vapinde.pamperi nezanu pf asina mugabe .baba jukwa varegeyi vataure chokwadi nokuti vanhu vopera muzanhu umu.siyayi vana vadoko vatonge.

  50. Bulawayo July 6, 2013 at 2:50 am #

    We will surprise you

  51. mugo wakubiro July 6, 2013 at 4:07 am #

    by the way how many registered voters are there in Uzumba ramba pfungwe ,becoz only 7000 voted during referedum but during general elections the figure jumps to 50000+;,,,,,,,,,RIGGING

  52. Tendai July 6, 2013 at 10:20 am #

    Baba Jukwa’s followers are mostly in the diaspora. Are they going to vote these fellows?? Just wondering. If the answer is no then Baba Jukwa is not the correct dip stick to predict the outcome of the elections.

  53. Tatenda July 7, 2013 at 12:04 am #

    Mese munopenga where is a black man in parliament in the western countries, vanhu Bateman tinobhowa Tamara kushandiswa chete. We are so stupid busy critizing Mugabe who wants to end colonial rule chete think nhai basa nderekuda varungu zvisina art who is a black man in parliament in western countries tumari twenyu twamunopihwa tweak agora kuafrica Kugara kudzorera hufpumi kumusha kupusa

  54. gudo guru July 7, 2013 at 10:50 am #

    “Zanu z full of tricks,just remember

  55. gonzo July 7, 2013 at 1:26 pm #

    Bob has 101 tricks,im sure he has only used 3 so 99 to go!

  56. Bigchinja July 8, 2013 at 12:14 pm #

    Save ndizvo from history he never lost any election but this time outright victory come 31/07/13

  57. chef chef July 11, 2013 at 3:25 pm #

    i am zanu by i voted for MT jus to apease baba jukwa nekurasisa va Vengi, come 31st . we are voting Zanu pf . muchama..

  58. Stop-a-Thief July 13, 2013 at 3:14 pm #

    Ndiani achirikuda Mugabe&zanupf??

    • PROF. 12221 July 17, 2013 at 2:46 am #

      commrades and friends, lets not want to taste salt anticipating that it will change to sugar. I want to tell fellow MDC supporters that it is now high time to know where to put your X on the day of voting. Remember, the road to state house is not as straight as you think, jus watch the space. You should stop your old-fashioned and old poltrics and start to cherish real politics. Please copy and anticipate real politics. Paberi neZanu Pf

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