The year 2012 was a turbulent one, as might be expected from a Year of the Dragon.
View Point with Wisdom Mdzungairi
However, while the run-up to the Chinese leadership transition was nothing if not controversial, President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao’s passing of the baton to Xi Jinping and Li Keqian was done smoothly.
The Xi-Li government is unlikely to signal any dramatic changes for China-Africa relations. Xi met frequently with African leaders during Hu’s presidency and therefore has a firm grasp of the relevant issues.
Yet closer to home, this year’s much-delayed harmonised elections in Zimbabwe could well yield surprises, but the public and corporate citizens are nervous about election tactics such as “indigenisation decrees”.
Some believe that if President Robert Mugabe could rein in his over-enthusiastic, vociferous henchmen in the police and security forces, the ensuing free and fair elections would be his to win.
Whatever the conclusions, the West’s “smart sanctions” have failed to bring about the intended changes politically, and have provided the elite few with a scapegoat for disastrous economic mismanagement and corruption in the mining industry.
China and India have, however, voiced concern about the security of investment under the unpredictable empowerment and indigenisation programme, along with Zimbabwe’s failure to renew its political leadership.
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Whatever the result, whatever the circumstances, as Sadc countries await the constitution referendum and national elections, there will be little or no change at all! It is simply a test for the constitutions.
Following sanctions imposed on the political elite, Zimbabwe has “Looked East” for economic sanctuary, and China has embraced the gesture with both hands making inroads into the country’s promising economic sector.
From Beijing’s perspective, the current platform for promoting China’s relations with Africa – the Ministerial Forum on China-Africa Co-operation (FOCAC) – a legacy of former Chinese President Jiang Zemin, is working well.
So far all the indications are that China’s new leadership team is prioritising internal economic and financial reforms.
On Saturday Chinese welcomed the arrival of the Year of the Snake with raucous celebrations, setting off a cacophony of firecrackers in the streets and sending fireworks blazing into the sky to bring good fortune.
Celebrations continued into the early hours of yesterday, officially the first day of the Lunar New Year, but as far as China’s relations with Africa in general, and in particular Zimbabwe go, it seems to be business as usual. Trade is expected to rise even higher in China’s favour.
For the uninitiated, the origin of Chinese New Year is itself centuries old and gains significance because of several myths and traditions. Traditionally, the festival was a time to honour deities as well as ancestors.
Although fears of a Chinese “hard landing” have subsided, it appears that Beijing’s long-held efforts to move from an investment-led to consumer-driven growth model are just now beginning in earnest. Such a shift may have a significant impact on Zimbabwe’s relations with China, hurting especially those other countries that take commodity demand for granted.
Cheap and poor standard goods will continue to flood the local markets since there are no checking mechanisms to turn the tide as China continues to export mostly finished products to Africa.
It is no coincidence then that Africa is China’s second-largest overseas contract market. For instance, between January and October 2012, Chinese enterprises’ newly-signed deals in Africa amounted to almost $40 billion, a 28% year-on-year increase, and those deals accounted for one-third of China’s contracted projects in foreign countries.
Political capital and history remained important factors in China’s relations with Africa. Symbolic is the African Union (AU)new headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Built with Beijing’s funds and inaugurated in January 2012 by African leaders, it is concrete evidence to China’s declared support for African integration.
Sadly, it is also a stinging reminder that the AU is funded 97% by foreign nations, as disclosed by AU chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma recently.
This, obviously, contributes to lack of ownership of the AU – a major concern by member states and their Non-Aligned Movement members. African leaders have described the trade relations tilt in China’s favour as “unsustainable”.
But the bone of contention is how to deal with the matter. Watching the Chinese celebrate the Year of the Snake on Saturday –one would have thought that Africa could have learnt a thing or two, and that perhaps this time around African leaders should be determined to do things differently.
The Chinese will continue to look for cheaper assets — should they get them on a silver plate? Potential investors doubtful of Zimbabwe’s good faith will continue to monitor events in the country, but will not waste time when more investor-friendly countries are available.
And so Zimbabwe’s tendency to over-estimate its mineral resource, its negotiating skills and its development expertise may put off potential investors.
2013 is a year Zimbabwe has a greater chance to rebrand itself through the United Nations World Tourism Organisation General Assembly sometime in August, a test for the constitutions and perhaps harmonised elections. Why doesn’t she do things differently this time around, given the support she has from neighbours, the continent and others? Does she really need to be perpetually under siege from “politics going wrong” –all the time?
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