THE 2013 National Budget could mark the beginning to the end of Finance minister Tendai Biti’s career as a government bureaucrat.
Report by Bernard Mpofu, Chief Business Reporter
With watershed elections slated for next year, any outcome in favour of either Zanu PF or MDC-T may result in a Cabinet reshuffle. Or could this be an opportunity for him to leave a legacy after his shock appointment as Finance minister in February 2009?
After spiking on the back of post-inclusive government euphoria, latest government figures have shown that revenues have all, but stagnated with the government taking its begging bowl to the region to seek budgetary support.
The desperation does not end there. After failing to meet grain output, Zimbabwe, once regarded as the bread basket of the region, has again been on its knees buying the staple food from neighbouring countries.
This week the Finance ministry began its pre-Budget consultations for the national fiscal plan with indications pointing towards more revenue collecting measures. A further squeeze on companies and individuals should be expected.
Biti’s dilemma would be striking a balance between populist pro-poor measures characterised by low taxes on individuals and taking heed of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) prescription on austerity measures.
On one hand, the Finance minister wants to be credited for tackling the huge debt overhang that has been an albatross around the government’s neck. To do so, implementing several reforms prescribed by the Bretton Woods institution would make him unpopular within the civil service which has been crying for wage reviews and a bonus at the end of the year.
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The IMF, which seems to have adopted a carrot-and-stick approach in order to carry out a staff monitored programme to deal with the country’s ballooning $10,7 billion debt, opposes any further upward adjustment to the public service wage bill.
As secretary-general of the former opposition party, now a partner in the inclusive government seeing its sunset days, Biti could be tempted to craft policies that could sway votes to the MDC-T by adding a dime to the apprehensive government workers.
Experts contend that bread and butter issues will shape the outcome of the elections. A recent government study revealed that 80% of the adult population earn less than $200 per month (including 17,3% who do not have an income at all).
With the poverty datum line standing around $560 for a family of six, a new government faces a herculean task of breaking shackles of poverty around the country’s adult population.
The FinScope Consumer Survey (Zimbabwe 2011) further showed that farming and fishing are main sources of income for Zimbabweans (29%), while every fourth Zimbabwean (25%) relies on money from others (household member or remittance) and only 18% receive a regular salary.
Official figures show that 40% of the country’s population is under the age of 30 and the majority of this is not economically settled.
The future currency is another contentious issue expected to be tackled in the Budget. Since dollarisation, most companies and individuals have struggled to access the United States dollar.
This has prompted politicians, mainly from Zanu PF, to call for the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe to mint the now redundant Zimbabwe dollar which became worthless in 2009 or adopt the Chinese yuan. Business on the other hand contends that the prevailing multiple currency regime should continue after the dreaded polls.
Access to clean water is another problem that confronts both the current inclusive government and the next government. The prevalence of pre-medieval waterborne diseases has exposed an impending crisis. Statistics show that two in every three Zimbabweans reside in households with no piped water, putting to risk the health of millions.
Biti’s moment of reckoning would be that of making homes a place to unwind after a day’s work. The perennial energy crisis has resulted in 67% of the country’s population using firewood as the main source of energy for cooking.
Another time bomb is ticking as the country quickens deforestation.
Access to affordable healthcare is expected to take centre stage in the forthcoming Budget. Already there is a tiff between Deputy Prime Minister Thokozani Khupe and Harare mayor Muchadeyi Masunda after the local authority proposed a hike on maternity fees at a time when central government was pushing for free access to the service. The countdown to the Budget begins.
