Zimbabwe announced at the weekend that the nationwide census, due to begin this Friday, will take place as planned.
Preparations were suspended earlier last week after the military became involved in what some believed was an attempt to intimidate voters ahead of elections.
Once soldiers became involved, acting Finance Minister Gorden Moyo called off the process. But late on Friday, after a marathon meeting that lasted several hours between security ministers, Moyo and Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara, the impasse was resolved. Mutambara said the headcount would be “credible.” One wonders why there was such discord over the census.
Traditionally the census is done by teachers but more than 10 000 security forces had found their way onto the list of enumerators. Apart from that, many people associate the army with intimidating civilians.
The perceived Zanu PF plan to take over the process was disturbing. If the take over had been allowed, the census could have been the biggest Zanu PF power grab ever. That unprecedented plan could taint results and open doors to a massive waste of taxpayer funds.
It may sound surprising to those who don’t consider the decennial headcount a red-hot political matter, but the census has become victim to an ongoing power struggle between Zanu PF and democratic forces.
And since the 2012 census will be the first in 32 years to be taken under an inclusive government, the stakes are particularly high this time around.
The latest problem arose when Zanu PF attempted to redraft the draft constitution after agreeing to the final copy with the involvement of its representatives.
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Other GNU partners and advocates for minority groups have protested the move by Zanu PF.
It is a simple restatement of existing practice. Why does it matter who oversees the census? In very general terms, the MDCs would prefer to err on the side of undercounting and Zanu PF would prefer to err on the side of over-counting.
The options can yield very different numbers for demographic groups and localities — and they have significant political and policy implications. This most recent skirmish is more manufactured than real, the result of willful misunderstandings. But it has its roots in an ongoing battle over whom the census counts — and how.
The problem is that it is not easy to count every person in the country and some communities are left out of the total. The 2002 census missed an estimated three million people in the Diaspora — and it managed to double-count millions others in the rural areas.
The battle over how to count people only makes sense when you look at what is at stake. The redistricting of areas and delimitation of Parliamentary constituencies is based on census counts — a province could gain or lose seats based on its population, and shifts within a province determine plans for redrawing political boundaries.
It seems fairly certain that the MDCs did not anticipate census politics to play into this census. The fight to determine how it happens and what the consequences will be has only just begun.
The 2002 census showed Zimbabwe had about 11, 6 million people. We have just finished drafting a new constitution that limits presidential powers while strengthening those of Parliament, an important but much-delayed step ahead of elections scheduled for next year.
We hope that the elections, plagued by violence in the past, will be free and fair to allow everybody to participate and choose their leader.
