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Zanu PF in poll catch-22 situation

Columnists
Zanu PF this week moved quickly to contradict an assertion by one of their stalwarts Patrick Chinamasa that it was not possible to hold elections this year. The “correction” to Chinamasa’s comments was not the usual slap on the wrist, but an unambiguous rebuke by his party which, through spokesman Rugare Gumbo, reminded the Justice […]

Zanu PF this week moved quickly to contradict an assertion by one of their stalwarts Patrick Chinamasa that it was not possible to hold elections this year.

The “correction” to Chinamasa’s comments was not the usual slap on the wrist, but an unambiguous rebuke by his party which, through spokesman Rugare Gumbo, reminded the Justice minister that he had “no right to express their personal opinions as fact or make decisions on such issues” as the powers to do so are only vested in President Robert Mugabe.

Rewind back to last month. Foreign Affairs minister Simbarashe Mumbengegwi was on a damage control mission to mollify Sadc after the bluster of the regional bloc by politburo member Jonathan Moyo in a newspaper article. Mumbengegwi told Sadc diplomats that Moyo’s attack did not reflect government policy.

This week Gumbo was saying the same about Chinamasa’s statement on elections: It does not represent Zanu PF’s position.

The two events are critical ahead of the Sadc Summit in Windhoek this month. By disowning Moyo, Zanu PF put itself at the mercy of the region which is pushing for an election roadmap.

And this week’s rebuke of Chinamasa is a clear message to defy Sadc’s efforts in the resolution of the crisis in Zimbabwe.

Put simply, Mumbengegwi’s quest to win over the region is now redundant. Zanu PF will thumb their noses at Sadc and this week Moyo crept out of the woodwork to reassert that position.

The rebuke on Chinamasa is amplified by the fact he is Zanu PF’s chief negotiator in the never-ending talks with the MDCs who constitute the other portion of the GNU.

Chinamasa, fresh from the Sadc-led negotiations, spoke to the media of the election roadmap and activities to be undertaken before the holding of elections.

“It is my own opinion that it is not possible to hold elections this year. We need to start talking about elections next year or 2013 assuming that the referendum is completed in September as we have been advised by Copac,” he said.

“We have come up with an election roadmap to identify signposts to be traversed ahead of elections in Zimbabwe,” he said

“Zimbabwe’s threat is not about the perceived isolation from Sadc. It is its ability to solve problems on its own and with the facilitation of Sadc. The agreed activities leading to the elections means that parties to the GPA have found a solution to the perceived problems.” Chinamasa’s undoing in all this is that his view on elections dovetails to PM Morgan Tsvangirai’s which is unpalatable to Zanu PF.

The quest to whip into line the minister who for three years has been a very influential member of the party only helps to foster the notion of cracks in the Zanu PF edifice.

Chinamasa, I assume, carries the brief of the party whenever he goes into the negotiations. His views on elections, I also want to assume, were informed by outcomes on the negotiating table. Gumbo however feels this is Chinamasa’s personal view and not the party’s.

This is to say that Chinamasa gave too many concessions during the negotiations or he is outrightly dancing out of tune.

He can’t in all frankness be just speaking out of turn. The position he presents has backers in the party; those who believe that their faction is not strong enough to contest in party primaries and would get a bloody nose in the bruising battles ahead.

Listen carefully to Chinamasa stretching possible election dates to 2013! There are mixed signals in the party regarding elections.

Gumbo says the correct position is the one agreed at the party annual conference in Mutare where it was resolved elections should be held this year.

This resolution does not appear to be holding and clear signs of dissent came from Chinamasa this week.

Only two months ago the minister was quoted in the media saying the country would go to the polls this year with our without a new constitution. What Damascan turnaround for the minister one would feel.

But Zanu PF has been forced into this position by regional pressure which has been building since the Sadc Troika summit in Livingstone where talk of an election roadmap was cemented.

Zanu PF has tried to stand firm against the Livingstone resolution by swinging at everyone speaking in support of the roadmap including the Sadc Chair, and now Chinamasa.

But they cannot escape from this one and Chinamasa, who is closer to the coalface, has perhaps realised the predicament of his party: Mugabe has to stay on the roadmap or face censure from his colleagues.

Ahead of the summit in Windhoek this month, Mugabe and minions will try to put up a fight. The censure of Chinamasa is therefore understandable.

The party is trying to ensure that it does not expose its soft underbelly ahead of Windhoek.

Zanu PF could be facing fundamental battles on two fronts: internally and in the region.

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