President Robert Mugabe will be shooting himself in the foot should he go against the grain and call for elections this year as the move is likely to place him in direct confrontation with key allies in Sadc, analysts have warned.
This comes in the wake of declarations by Zanu PF national spokesperson Rugare Gumbo that the country would go for elections this year.
“The party position is very clear,” Gumbo said on Monday. “I don’t know how many times I should repeat this. Elections are on this year and reforms are not fundamental if people want elections. The Mutare congress last year made it clear that elections will be held this year. The politburo also made it clear and the President also made it clear.”
However, political analysts warned that calling for elections against the “blessings of Sadc” would be suicidal for both President Mugabe and Zanu PF.
“There is a clear danger if the President decides to go for the 2011 elections notwithstanding the Sadc advice,” said University of Zimbabwe (UZ) political science lecturer Eldred Masunungure.
“The party stands to lose more than it would gain if it chooses a unilateral decision. I think it will be a suicidal course of action. It will bring Zanu PF into direct confrontation, head-on collision with Sadc. It will alienate even its friends in Sadc.”
Another UZ political science lecturer, John Makumbe, said President Mugabe and Zanu PF risked being slapped with punitive measures by Sadc if they defy the regional bloc.
Makumbe said instead of concentrating on the anti-sanctions campaign, President Mugabe and his party should now be more concerned about “sanctions” that were likely to be imposed by Sadc should they press ahead with holding elections this year.
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“What we know is that President Mugabe can call for elections anytime regardless of what Sadc says,” Makumbe said.
“Then the sanctions that they should worry about are those that will be imposed by Sadc if we go for elections this year. We are a landlocked country and we rely on our neighbours. What will happen if they close their borders? Our government officials will be barred from travelling to South Africa, Zambia and other countries in the region.”
Sadc and the two MDC parties want elections deferred until a roadmap that will lead to a free and fair poll is put in place. National Constitutional Assembly chairman Lovemore Madhuku had different views saying: “People must not celebrate that Sadc is in charge of the process. No country should be run by Sadc. Every country must hold its own elections.
Which other country has been given a timetable to hold elections by Sadc? Did Sadc tell the DRC when it should have its elections? The issue that we should have elections or not should be made by Zimbabweans.” Zanu PF wants a referendum on the new constitution this year, quickly followed by presidential and parliamentary elections.
Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai however insist there should be security safeguards and effective monitoring. Masungunure said of the anti-sanctions campaign:
“It is very clear even with a naked eye that there is a partisan dimension to do with the next election. It’s a mobilisation tool to arouse the enthusiasm of the electorate and enlist support for Zanu PF.”
But Gumbo said it was not true that Zanu PF was using the anti-sanctions campaign as an campaign strategy.
He said such assertions were “nonsensical” as Zanu PF had noble intentions to ensure the West completely removed the sanctions against President Mugabe, his colleagues in Zanu PF and government, key officials and companies with links of Zanu PF and government.
“That is nonsense.This is not a campaign gimmick and the position still stands that we are genuinely fighting Western-imposed sanctions,” he said.
