Political challenges in Zimbabwe and Madagascar, particularly the deteriorating situation in Zimbabwe, will hog the limelight at the Sadc Troika summit in Livingstone, Zambia.
The summit in the Zambian tourist capital is particularly important in that Zimbabweans expect the 15-nation regional bloc to rein in President Robert Mugabe accused of cracking down on dissent ahead of possible elections later this year.
While the majority is hopeful that regional leaders, Mozambican President Armando Emilio Guebuza, South African President Jacob Zuma, Hifikepunye Pohamba (Namibia) and host, President Rupiah Banda, will dissuade President Mugabe from his violent path and holding elections this year, we believe the summit is yet another meeting which could turn out to be a damp squib.
This is because none of the regional leaders attending the Troika has publicly spoken against President Mugabe’s crackdown on civil liberties, civil societies, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC-T MPs and supporters.
Most importantly, one of the negotiators of the GPA Elton Mangoma, who is also a government minister, is languishing in remand prison while several of his colleagues are either in hiding or facing criminal charges of all sorts around the country.
Only Seretse Ian Khama of Botswana has challenged President Mugabe over his intransigence in the inclusive government. But Khama cannot fight a lone battle.
He needs the support of his counterparts, in this case, the same regional leaders convening in Livingstone.
We wonder why these regional leaders fear President Mugabe this much. Is it because they have some skeletons in their closets?
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Older heads of state in the region see President Mugabe as their peer while young leaders, the likes of Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila, view him as their father, and so could not challenge or help him to see sense.
President Mugabe has outmanoeuvred his peers each time they plan to confront him.
And this time around he decided he would confront Banda first, telling him in his face that Zimbabwe was ready for elections this year with or without a new constitution, even if the majority were against that.
What is curious is that his position is the one that was taken by the Zanu PF politburo meeting in Harare this week.
The summit is coming at a time President Mugabe and his Zanu PF are smarting from a defeat in Parliament, where party chairman Simon Khaya Moyo was thumped by MDC-T’s Lovemore Moyo in elections for Speaker of the House of Assembly.
We call on Sadc to develop real teeth, for it is up to the leaders to assist each other now, for if they continue on this destructive path, we cannot rule out revolutions erupting just as they have occurred in North Africa.
What is important is that revolutions in North Africa had a point of departure in Egypt but spread to neighbouring countries. That should send a clear message to Sadc leaders.
If any such revolution erupts in any country in this region, it may spread like fire.
Sadc must tread carefully and deal with the Zimbabwe issue impartially.
